NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Hornets: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95db1aa4a6104956ddee5104405f964d3fff23dd024652a63d7a82bf8ec57468
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc29f…ec0bbacked Hornets | 0c | 19,901$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…395cbacked Hornets | 65c | 1,460$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.18 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Heat | 35c | 1,019$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.58 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5c…12f8backed Heat | 52c | 912.96$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Hornets | 52c | 773.12$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.32 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heat | 34c | 577.96$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.47 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Heat | 35c | 458.19$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.82 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…26dcbacked Hornets | 64c | 408.29$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.23 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Heat | 36c | 373.96$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.33 | 277 | 46.6%129 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…29bfbacked Hornets | 66c | 296.84$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.91 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Hornets | 61c | 263.91$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.98 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f3…c5c2backed Hornets | 74c | 221.18$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.4 | 86 | 69.8%60 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Hornets | 61c | 188.48$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.97 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ca…fb01backed Heat | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Hornets | 40c | 167.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 313 | 45.7%143 W · 170 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Heat | 39c | 151.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.42 | 201 | 46.8%94 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…7de9backed Heat | 30c | 144.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.53 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +51%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Hornets | 58c | 141.38$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 326 | 54.6%178 W · 148 L | +22.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Hornets | 13c | 122$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Hornets | 65c | 110.62$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 387 | 36.4%141 W · 246 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hornets | 56c | 102.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…626dbacked Heat | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Hornets | 79c | 98.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Hornets | 56c | 97.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…3003backed Hornets | 65c | 95.12$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Heat | 42c | 72.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Hornets | 65c | 59.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Heat | 36c | 56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Hornets | 64c | 54.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Heat | 45c | 53.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 168 | 42.3%71 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Heat | 36c | 49.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4a…d477backed Hornets | 57c | 42.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…590ebacked Heat | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5345…666abacked Heat | 38c | 37.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…8bbcbacked Heat | 39c | 36.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Hornets | 55c | 30.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f01…eee2backed Hornets | 65c | 30.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Hornets | 62c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Hornets | 67c | 28.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Heat | 38c | 27.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +159.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Hornets | 79c | 22.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Hornets | 61c | 18.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 163 | 69.9%114 W · 49 L | +18.6wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Hornets: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Heat won
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Brandon Miller: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Heat vs. HornetsHornets won
- Heat vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Kon Knueppel: Points O/U 17.5No won
- LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Hornets (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hornets (-6.5)Heat won
- Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.