MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1be2883a48a38009255774d118ba957883676eba451688a6ab58fc22e19d7761
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 59c | 5,550$3,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,275.69 | 1,875 | 52.1%976 W · 899 L | +52.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 3,507$1,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,936.93 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…26dcbacked Under | 60c | 3,290$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.71 | 231 | 52.8%122 W · 109 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 41c | 2,728$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.13 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 44c | 1,661$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.32 | 4,401 | 47.5%2,090 W · 2,311 L | -76.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 51c | 1,431$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.56 | 837 | 42.8%358 W · 479 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 1,351$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.91 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 45c | 1,304$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.74 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 1,178$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.48 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 40c | 803.69$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.48 | 929 | 46.1%428 W · 501 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 59c | 677.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.97 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 43c | 454.81$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.24 | 301 | 50.8%153 W · 148 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 59c | 289$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.49 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 67c | 244.72$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 3,465 | 51.2%1,774 W · 1,691 L | +105.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 68c | 236$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.7 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6334…6fa3backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 46c | 183$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.63 | 1,150 | 31.7%365 W · 785 L | -95.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…164bbacked Under | 62c | 177.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Over | 51c | 175.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 58c | 161.03$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 2,150 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,071 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Over | 48c | 144.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 61c | 125$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 58c | 105.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 768 | 58.1%446 W · 322 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 40c | 94.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 51c | 85.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…a700backed Over | 37c | 83.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Over | 59c | 83.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 36c | 80.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Over | 59c | 74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 31c | 68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Over | 59c | 66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 58c | 63.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 1,970 | 53.1%1,047 W · 923 L | +45.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 59c | 63.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 57c | 59.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Over | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 50c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 2,549 | 45.8%1,168 W · 1,381 L | -75.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 58c | 58.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 44c | 53.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 42c | 51.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 319 | 54.2%173 W · 146 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…0b3bbacked Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…c19bbacked Over | 49c | 41.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 42c | 40.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…c4fcbacked Over | 59c | 27.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…4843backed Under | 57c | 26.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 50c | 26.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Under | 56c | 26.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca8…ab36backed Over | 59c | 25.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x002e…bd31backed Over | 70c | 23.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d1…a991backed Under | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 59c | 22.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 318 | 49.7%158 W · 160 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Over | 68c | 22.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x788b…25a6backed Under | 57c | 20.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 59cpaid | -60%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09f7…d4a3backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a6b4backed Over | 59c | 17.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd1…0f8dbacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.