MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce288053d103f8f45c6b2b8e78331df81cd2785be6e2a81258e4b138542862a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 12c | 4,391$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Houston Astros | 64c | 935.14$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.14 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 700$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 594.84$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.19 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…1deebacked Houston Astros | 24c | 417.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.29 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +5.7wins | +0.41per pick | 45cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…38febacked Toronto Blue Jays | 22c | 412.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 14c | 402.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 378.43$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.73 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 64c | 342.36$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.98 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 30c | 315.02$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.7 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Houston Astros | 65c | 308.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 299.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 279.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.72 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 278.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34de…bd88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 264$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros | 62c | 251.63$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.62 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Toronto Blue Jays | 18c | 244.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 24c | 233.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 209.18$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.61 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Houston Astros | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 137$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a39…693cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 136.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros | 45c | 129.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.03 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 78c | 116.98$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Toronto Blue Jays | 18c | 110.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6334…6fa3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 89.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Houston Astros | 69c | 72.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Houston Astros | 47c | 44.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 38.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 72c | 31.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Houston Astros | 37c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407b…bba5backed Houston Astros | 61c | 26.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…a945backed Houston Astros | 61c | 26.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Houston Astros | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Houston Astros | 64c | 25.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0762…e8c1backed Houston Astros | 61c | 25.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e76…5025backed Houston Astros | 61c | 25.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe76…fb1bbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 24.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…7a2bbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 22.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…abaebacked Houston Astros | 61c | 21.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cc…28bdbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 21.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…8325backed Houston Astros | 61c | 21.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Houston Astros | 72c | 20.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa290…7920backed Houston Astros | 61c | 19.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Houston Astros | 70c | 18.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a5…cffdbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 16.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.