MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88f883d3088e8695a106afa89e81c7f8268a6fc413f5e9182b6d83582147e5f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 47c | 7,644$3,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,051.11 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 53c | 7,254$3,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,839.97 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 1,626$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.23 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 48c | 1,518$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.64 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0f…3476backed Under | 46c | 760.98$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Over | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 41c | 526.64$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.46 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…4b55backed Over | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 49c | 410$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.83 | 820 | 42.6%349 W · 471 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 330.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.28 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 41c | 294.67$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.43 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Under | 7c | 288.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Over | 59c | 259.98$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e9…9afabacked Under | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 44c | 207.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…a700backed Over | 69c | 169.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 47c | 147.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 45c | 132$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.47 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 33c | 120.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 61c | 70.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 71c | 59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 41c | 58.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Over | 72c | 55.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a01…1a3cbacked Over | 57c | 52.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 51.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 48c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 39c | 48.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 40c | 35.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 33c | 31.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…3bfbbacked Over | 59c | 27.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f91…d069backed Over | 63c | 26.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…0faebacked Over | 59c | 25.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46be…9ce1backed Over | 59c | 24.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89fe…c0a0backed Over | 59c | 24.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 61c | 23.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 661 | 59.5%393 W · 268 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6c…0b33backed Over | 59c | 18.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 69c | 16.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf8…5d40backed Over | 78c | 14.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.