MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9e740e9cf0944474231b8c32dee14d0de3c34f15ab9c4fb9dea7d9583645cd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 2,841$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760.06 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 1,401$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.76 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 1,014$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.55 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…1deebacked Houston Astros | 53c | 943.49$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.49 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +5.7wins | +0.41per pick | 45cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Houston Astros | 57c | 919$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.17 | 926 | 45.9%425 W · 501 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…54adbacked Houston Astros | 80c | 625.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Houston Astros | 33c | 545.26$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.79 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 32c | 515.63$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.63 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 398.11$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.77 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Houston Astros | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Houston Astros | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 384 | 53.9%207 W · 177 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Houston Astros | 35c | 279.83$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.89 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 38c | 209.85$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.93 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Toronto Blue Jays | 27c | 189.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 154.14$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Houston Astros | 59c | 151.86$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Houston Astros | 35c | 151.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.86 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…a700backed Houston Astros | 60c | 130$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 129.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6efa…a0a7backed Houston Astros | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Houston Astros | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 12c | 94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros | 28c | 86.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Houston Astros | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Houston Astros | 42c | 61.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros | 47c | 56.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Houston Astros | 60c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 53.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Houston Astros | 34c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Houston Astros | 50c | 43.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…944bbacked Houston Astros | 25c | 42.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Houston Astros | 42c | 31.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Houston Astros | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 193 | 41.5%80 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…f8e8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…fe5dbacked Houston Astros | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…4f16backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 29.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 46cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Houston Astros | 39c | 27.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Houston Astros | 60c | 23.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.