MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a17e1a9a29061744eba8f5c330a766bd97117e1e740731e4de4bf4559d58a96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f0c…7ca5backed Under | 70c | 60,580$42,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,590.37 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -7.9wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 32c | 23,779$7,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,064.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 27c | 23,592$6,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,219.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 2,256$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 44c | 2,010$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.46 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595d…9ad0backed Over | 52c | 1,931$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.31 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 46c | 1,740$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.29 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 32c | 1,384$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.85 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 34c | 1,260$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 34c | 1,111$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.13 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 23c | 592.19$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.7 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 38c | 432.9$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.25 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e9…9afabacked Under | 58c | 427.54$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 47c | 396.17$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.2 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 41c | 302.78$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.28 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 53c | 286.77$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.88 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Under | 10c | 280$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 43c | 234.8$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.05 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…fdbebacked Under | 68c | 222$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.96 | 82 | 64.6%53 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 37c | 219.93$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.83 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 43c | 215.47$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.82 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 52c | 201.32$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 34c | 179$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.14 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Under | 57c | 175$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -49%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 44c | 170.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 41c | 159.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.38 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ffcabacked Under | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 54c | 143.54$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 34c | 129.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 64c | 108.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.83 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 45c | 98.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Over | 44c | 94.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117b…f017backed Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 62c | 80.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 79.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 42c | 78.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 34c | 74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 65c | 71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 26c | 68.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 28c | 62.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 39c | 58.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 47c | 56.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 62c | 56.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 34c | 53.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 55c | 43.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 28c | 42.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Over | 43c | 40.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 54c | 39.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 43c | 38.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 73c | 35.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7de2…cd3fbacked Under | 73c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 43c | 32.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked Over | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 57c | 23.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Over | 51c | 22.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed Over | 56c | 20.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x786f…1dcdbacked Under | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.