MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5447f194ffae23126833d1e3b8c9d3c94b423042783a9ffbfe60717be7edf2c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 15c | 3,623$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 16c | 488.53$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 72c | 401.04$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.29 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 401.04$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.29 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…38febacked Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 98.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 24c | 45.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Houston Astros | 67c | 39.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4901…b52dbacked Houston Astros | 68c | 25.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32c5…436cbacked Houston Astros | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702a…d666backed Houston Astros | 68c | 19.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Houston Astros | 80c | 16.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4725…6253backed Houston Astros | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.