MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1afedd998d0a7342459ac766718315c19f4c4775c78cdee28a28d6cad524debf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb939…da70backed Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 22,700$9,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,966.26 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 18,722$10,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,183.99 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 3,707$2,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610.48 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 2,500$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 1,392$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.94 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 560.44$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.55 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 482.48$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.64 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 459.52$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 402.85$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.04 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 399$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.65 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 303.92$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.65 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 300$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 294.48$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.19 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 18c | 171.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 143.81$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…26dcbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 231 | 52.8%122 W · 109 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 110.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 71.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 65.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 335 | 56.1%188 W · 147 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…30b1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 52.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…c08bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 29.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.