TailMyPicks
Market

WNBA · resolved market

Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New York Libertyof Phoenix Mercury, New York Liberty
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$176,968
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$184,702

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,968 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Phoenix Mercury35c36,341$12,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,695.349137.4%34 W · 57 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-24%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed New York Liberty65c18,888$12,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,610.82365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Phoenix Mercury33c12,000$3,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,959.9527949.1%137 W · 142 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Phoenix Mercury15c8,027$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.722748.5%110 W · 117 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked New York Liberty65c7,500$4,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,62514450.7%73 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed New York Liberty67c7,465$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,465.313745.9%17 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury15c6,630$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.441,63250.2%819 W · 813 L+37.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Phoenix Mercury35c6,131$2,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,120.8710438.5%40 W · 64 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked Phoenix Mercury4c5,741$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.988327.7%23 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Liberty76c3,693$2,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.841,01247.9%485 W · 527 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed New York Liberty65c3,416$2,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.1441051.2%210 W · 200 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee20…4b3cbacked New York Liberty67c3,299$2,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New York Liberty67c2,645$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.2423245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96a9…e073backed Phoenix Mercury35c2,623$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.762941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed New York Liberty65c2,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7002259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Phoenix Mercury2c1,800$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2945415.6%71 W · 383 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed New York Liberty67c1,684$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.1110151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Phoenix Mercury4c1,663$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0336950.9%188 W · 181 L+16.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b4d…51a0backed New York Liberty67c1,642$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.79475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked New York Liberty67c1,493$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.5423467.5%158 W · 76 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x476d…0c42backed New York Liberty66c1,343$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.734669.6%32 W · 14 L+10.7wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+44.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x0fb9…15f0backed Phoenix Mercury34c1,249$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed New York Liberty74c1,165$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.9919658.2%114 W · 82 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed New York Liberty67c1,144$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.5236754%198 W · 169 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Phoenix Mercury18c1,089$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.3819628.6%56 W · 140 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Phoenix Mercury35c1,020$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3579354.8%51 W · 42 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Phoenix Mercury1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed New York Liberty66c986.59$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.65044%22 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2978…b511backed New York Liberty79c929.06$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.064434.1%15 W · 29 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-43.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Phoenix Mercury26c923.75$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.2511840.7%48 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Phoenix Mercury25c889.32$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.159129.7%27 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Phoenix Mercury4c876.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.055538.2%21 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c30…34f5backed New York Liberty79c871.41$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.412965.5%19 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe15a…7186backed Phoenix Mercury34c820.02$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.81250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed New York Liberty67c746.26$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.2632743.7%143 W · 184 L-23.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Phoenix Mercury1c700$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10960%0 W · 96 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked New York Liberty65c676.76$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.184652.2%24 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+39.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed New York Liberty65c659.99$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2319439.4%37 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Phoenix Mercury2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12390%0 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked New York Liberty68c561.4$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.961,78751.7%924 W · 863 L+54.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Phoenix Mercury21c556.89$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.675431.5%17 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Liberty67c524.7$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.1532749.5%162 W · 165 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e0a…629dbacked New York Liberty72c503.33$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.161957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+37.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked New York Liberty74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1302673.1%19 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Phoenix Mercury33c499.99$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1653458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Phoenix Mercury28c499.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14013124.4%32 W · 99 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Phoenix Mercury23c461.06$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.961414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-79.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Phoenix Mercury19c443.04$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.666237.1%23 W · 39 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x41f7…c4e4backed Phoenix Mercury33c369.12$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.233941%16 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c91…b4d2backed New York Liberty75c338.98$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.621361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Phoenix Mercury23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6921440.7%87 W · 127 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Phoenix Mercury34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Phoenix Mercury28c300$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5913844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fba…26dcbacked New York Liberty67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991080%8 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+34.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Phoenix Mercury7c288.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4930347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked New York Liberty78c265.64$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9631249.4%154 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Phoenix Mercury5c260$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.751552.6%271 W · 244 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked New York Liberty65c250$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.512144.6%54 W · 67 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Phoenix Mercury21c229.24$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.892152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x520d…e474backed New York Liberty67c211.94$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.942875%21 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Phoenix Mercury34c208.29$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.825660.7%34 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffc9…bf01backed Phoenix Mercury13c208.24$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.061952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Phoenix Mercury25c202.01$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4518844.1%83 W · 105 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc668…0a90backed Phoenix Mercury34c201.37$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.472347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Phoenix Mercury33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6621337.6%80 W · 133 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Phoenix Mercury26c198.07$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3912745.7%58 W · 69 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Phoenix Mercury26c194.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9416745.5%76 W · 91 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Phoenix Mercury34c183.25$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.129635.4%34 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d5b…4c7bbacked Phoenix Mercury23c175.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Phoenix Mercury23c160.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.791442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Phoenix Mercury19c160.01$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0532047.8%153 W · 167 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Phoenix Mercury25c160$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.737054.1%200 W · 170 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed New York Liberty63c159.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.019549.5%47 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked New York Liberty66c157.34$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9393248.8%455 W · 477 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Phoenix Mercury32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013622.8%31 W · 105 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbde6…764bbacked New York Liberty66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.525457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb009…7a8ebacked New York Liberty67c150$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-78.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e9…b2e0backed New York Liberty70c149.98$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.741266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a15…e238backed New York Liberty67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.258550.6%43 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55c7…f584backed New York Liberty67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.251172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Phoenix Mercury24c147.64$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.746127.9%17 W · 44 L-10.1wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-42.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked New York Liberty77c134.65$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6338744.7%173 W · 214 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x286c…f34ebacked Phoenix Mercury34c133.38$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.351752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked New York Liberty66c131.33$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6520642.7%88 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbad…4f53backed New York Liberty78c128.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.844461.4%27 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Phoenix Mercury27c125$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.410349.5%51 W · 52 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Phoenix Mercury22c119.86$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2219231.8%61 W · 131 L-13.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed New York Liberty75c116$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.956455.1%311 W · 253 L+27.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Phoenix Mercury25c110.46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8819646.9%92 W · 104 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Phoenix Mercury28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.043847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Phoenix Mercury33c99.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-34.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Phoenix Mercury13c99.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4111941.2%49 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked New York Liberty55c91.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.32958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02f8…df25backed New York Liberty77c90.72$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.724080%32 W · 8 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Phoenix Mercury34c90.27$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.694047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0696…d2acbacked Phoenix Mercury29c89.62$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Phoenix Mercury36c89.23$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-29.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked New York Liberty79c86.91$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5985158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaa89…ccd2backed New York Liberty67c85.07$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.07666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc754…b388backed Phoenix Mercury35c84.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.