WNBA · resolved market
Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f49630737817ffa18dd0763db1f197aaaf06df8d7d46443c4d77b9adad90a06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Libertyof New York Liberty, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 5,902$3,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,069.01 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Liberty | 48c | 4,535$2,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,351.93 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked New York Liberty | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…4e1dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 1,016$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 1,001$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.43 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked New York Liberty | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 762.24$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.49 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 620.01$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.62 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed New York Liberty | 50c | 196.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.24 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed New York Liberty | 51c | 196.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.35 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 195.05$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed New York Liberty | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked New York Liberty | 55c | 132$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 149 | 36.9%55 W · 94 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 131$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 120.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 107.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed New York Liberty | 45c | 86.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed New York Liberty | 49c | 81.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 79.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked New York Liberty | 53c | 62.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 60.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 196 | 46.9%92 W · 104 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked New York Liberty | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286c…f34ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 57.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked New York Liberty | 71c | 54.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Phoenix Mercury | 37c | 50.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked New York Liberty | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Phoenix Mercury | 39c | 33.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Liberty | 50c | 33.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked New York Liberty | 48c | 30.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 188 | 44.1%83 W · 105 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Liberty | 52c | 30.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked New York Liberty | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Liberty | 53c | 24.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked New York Liberty | 52c | 21.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…cebabacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 21.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. New York LibertyNew York Liberty won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 169.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 170.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 171.5Under won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-6.5)New York Liberty won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.