UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceb8e9b8d0956df75108a92323a120997465d0342baa41ef9f4dc1199868c7d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thomas Petersenof Thomas Petersen, Guilherme Pat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $297,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $306,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $297,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 333 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Thomas Petersen | 69c | 49,769$34,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,675.55 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Guilherme Pat | 21c | 40,707$8,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,666.86 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thomas Petersen | 50c | 22,000$10,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,099.99 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Guilherme Pat | 49c | 18,596$9,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,112 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Guilherme Pat | 72c | 12,877$9,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,281.34 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Thomas Petersen | 78c | 12,644$9,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,796.89 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Guilherme Pat | 21c | 11,158$2,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,331.1 | 277 | 43%119 W · 158 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…eadcbacked Thomas Petersen | 60c | 10,479$6,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,219.57 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Guilherme Pat | 50c | 9,894$4,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,947 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Thomas Petersen | 51c | 8,655$4,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,266.48 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Thomas Petersen | 50c | 7,961$3,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,961.6 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Guilherme Pat | 21c | 7,671$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.69 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Guilherme Pat | 51c | 7,502$3,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,856.97 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0441…e90fbacked Guilherme Pat | 58c | 7,429$4,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,323.42 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01bf…070dbacked Guilherme Pat | 53c | 7,000$3,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,709.95 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Guilherme Pat | 33c | 5,983$1,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,954.45 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Guilherme Pat | 18c | 5,202$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.3 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Guilherme Pat | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Thomas Petersen | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Guilherme Pat | 46c | 4,940$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280.05 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Thomas Petersen | 49c | 4,658$2,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,388.98 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Thomas Petersen | 53c | 4,607$2,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,170.84 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Thomas Petersen | 49c | 4,492$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,303.95 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Thomas Petersen | 63c | 3,904$2,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.07 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Thomas Petersen | 29c | 3,870$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,752.75 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…fd52backed Thomas Petersen | 58c | 3,863$2,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,628.25 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Guilherme Pat | 35c | 3,847$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.21 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Guilherme Pat | 50c | 3,621$1,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810.6 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Guilherme Pat | 30c | 3,207$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.31 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Thomas Petersen | 76c | 3,063$2,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.18 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Thomas Petersen | 35c | 3,028$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,970.91 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Thomas Petersen | 31c | 3,003$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,078.04 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…9b91backed Guilherme Pat | 48c | 2,895$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…d420backed Guilherme Pat | 27c | 2,807$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.93 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Thomas Petersen | 48c | 2,690$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.77 | 417 | 54%225 W · 192 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Thomas Petersen | 77c | 2,444$1,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.71 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Thomas Petersen | 77c | 2,360$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.15 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Thomas Petersen | 47c | 2,234$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.12 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…2497backed Guilherme Pat | 27c | 2,203$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.98 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…13aebacked Thomas Petersen | 51c | 2,055$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Thomas Petersen | 52c | 2,036$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.1 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Guilherme Pat | 48c | 1,985$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.02 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c14…d8fbbacked Guilherme Pat | 49c | 1,959$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.7 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Thomas Petersen | 71c | 1,735$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.84 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…ed5ebacked Thomas Petersen | 48c | 1,700$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked Guilherme Pat | 4c | 1,661$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Guilherme Pat | 25c | 1,574$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.26 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Guilherme Pat | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.99 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Guilherme Pat | 40c | 1,472$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.29 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed Thomas Petersen | 47c | 1,467$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.56 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Thomas Petersen | 48c | 1,445$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.32 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe802…e465backed Thomas Petersen | 51c | 1,407$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.61 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c68…6746backed Thomas Petersen | 52c | 1,405$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.73 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Thomas Petersen | 47c | 1,310$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.06 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Thomas Petersen | 29c | 1,252$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.35 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Guilherme Pat | 59c | 1,246$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.83 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…59fbbacked Thomas Petersen | 80c | 1,241$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.71 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Thomas Petersen | 47c | 1,231$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.87 | 49 | 81.6%40 W · 9 L | +10.4wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Thomas Petersen | 50c | 1,182$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.01 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Thomas Petersen | 49c | 1,167$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.58 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Thomas Petersen | 46c | 1,141$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.05 | 263 | 52.1%137 W · 126 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…1080backed Guilherme Pat | 77c | 1,100$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Thomas Petersen | 51c | 1,100$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.99 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Thomas Petersen | 50c | 1,067$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.5 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Thomas Petersen | 51c | 1,012$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.19 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed99…2677backed Guilherme Pat | 51c | 1,002$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.54 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Thomas Petersen | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Guilherme Pat | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Thomas Petersen | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Guilherme Pat | 48c | 999.99$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Thomas Petersen | 47c | 985.05$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.08 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Thomas Petersen | 57c | 977.7$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.77 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Guilherme Pat | 51c | 975.17$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.34 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…3d49backed Thomas Petersen | 54c | 971.8$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.35 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…1419backed Guilherme Pat | 3c | 889.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c82…b7d3backed Guilherme Pat | 49c | 882.59$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…1eb0backed Guilherme Pat | 59c | 799.99$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Guilherme Pat | 49c | 758.89$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.85 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Thomas Petersen | 47c | 708.65$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.22 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x501a…b930backed Guilherme Pat | 49c | 648.9$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.96 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc229…dbeabacked Guilherme Pat | 60c | 630.63$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.43 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Thomas Petersen | 47c | 628.76$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.24 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Guilherme Pat | 52c | 625.41$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.55 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0780…b0e9backed Thomas Petersen | 51c | 605.2$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed Guilherme Pat | 49c | 593.51$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.82 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb42a…e685backed Guilherme Pat | 16c | 593.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Guilherme Pat | 51c | 584.29$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.54 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1f…49e6backed Guilherme Pat | 50c | 583.82$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.81 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Thomas Petersen | 50c | 580.55$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.99 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…4093backed Guilherme Pat | 21c | 570.5$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Thomas Petersen | 51c | 566.98$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.74 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Guilherme Pat | 32c | 561.74$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.85 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8b…e0dbbacked Thomas Petersen | 73c | 540.33$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Guilherme Pat | 51c | 515.77$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.04 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…e8b5backed Thomas Petersen | 41c | 498.29$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.47 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f4…2b15backed Guilherme Pat | 52c | 495.97$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.01 | 161 | 56.5%91 W · 70 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…683fbacked Guilherme Pat | 49c | 494.59$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.35 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…09d0backed Guilherme Pat | 57c | 491.81$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.67 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…98c4backed Guilherme Pat | 51c | 490.15$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Thomas Petersen | 30c | 488.3$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.22 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Prelims)this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Guilherme Pat win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.