UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a11db6388e604a3a587e644b4430fe2da2524c7b239804a4b6242d55a6b2c4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 50c | 10,529$5,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,264.5 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…20d1backed Under | 50c | 10,223$5,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,111.7 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 48c | 1,070$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.41 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…a64abacked Over | 54c | 543.5$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.84 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked Over | 52c | 428.33$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 46c | 406.09$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.36 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c50…2de6backed Over | 52c | 385.98$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 48c | 380.74$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.75 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 52c | 347$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.56 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Under | 48c | 309.05$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.34 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Under | 49c | 247.2$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.13 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked Over | 52c | 246$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.08 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 49c | 228.62$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.46 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f6…e24cbacked Over | 53c | 165.43$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Under | 48c | 161.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d5…7ca1backed Over | 52c | 132.89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 48c | 124.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 46c | 108.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 51c | 108.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 48c | 95.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 53c | 95.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ac…6980backed Under | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…e769backed Over | 52c | 89.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 52c | 83.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Over | 52c | 68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Over | 52c | 67.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c92…5567backed Over | 53c | 64.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef86…5afcbacked Over | 52c | 52.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 48c | 49.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28cd…d99abacked Under | 48c | 49.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9722…3e81backed Over | 52c | 41.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…21b1backed Over | 54c | 37.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…a9cebacked Over | 51c | 34.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 46c | 27.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…dfc1backed Under | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Over | 52c | 25.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Over | 52c | 25.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4a…1a5cbacked Over | 53c | 23.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Under | 54c | 19.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Prelims)Thomas Petersen won
- Will Guilherme Pat win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.