NHL · resolved market
Will Adam Novotný be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a46821e21a2a0f6f9acc762c670bd06e924cad15390930bb58042c7110905fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3650…d17cbacked Yes | 8c | 959.68$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c6…243bbacked Yes | 8c | 602.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5e…7761backed Yes | 8c | 416.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1f…6465backed Yes | 8c | 203.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b25…ff39backed Yes | 8c | 190.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f67…130abacked No | 77c | 92.66$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b0…8501backed Yes | 23c | 90.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.44per pick | 52cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adam Novotný be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?this page
- Will Alberts Smits be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?Yes won
- Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Caleb Malhotra be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?Yes won
- Will Carson Carels be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Daxon Rudolph be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?Yes won
- Will Ethan Belchetz be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Keaton Verhoeff be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Maddox Dagenais be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Malte Gustafsson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Marcus Nordmark be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Mathis Preston be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Tommy Bleyl be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Tynan Lawrence be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Wyatt Cullen be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Xavier Villeneuve be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.