NHL · resolved market
Will Tynan Lawrence be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4393b8a4b240b09ecf1815ca353cc43e108479bd26bce64300e77b970035966
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 27c | 220.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.56per pick | 24cpaid | +247.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 42c | 140.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb6…5517backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked No | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc43…810dbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…de59backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645b…8730backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 77c | 13.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.44per pick | 52cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tynan Lawrence be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?this page
- Will Adam Novotný be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Alberts Smits be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?Yes won
- Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Caleb Malhotra be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?Yes won
- Will Carson Carels be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Daxon Rudolph be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?Yes won
- Will Ethan Belchetz be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Keaton Verhoeff be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Maddox Dagenais be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Malte Gustafsson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Marcus Nordmark be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Mathis Preston be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Tommy Bleyl be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Wyatt Cullen be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Xavier Villeneuve be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.