TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$110,828
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,762

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,828 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 274 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5a21…9318backed No65c7,722$5,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,719.4452850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No77c7,345$5,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710.7134354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Yes42c5,316$2,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,246.987451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x769c…3d88backed Yes35c4,263$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.951020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No51c4,123$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,025.2143243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d34…9acebacked Yes48c4,000$1,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,917.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes33c3,790$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,257.3310233.3%34 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc78e…4718backed No57c3,400$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,471.622352.2%12 W · 11 L+5.0wins+0.22per pick30cpaid+23%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed Yes2c3,174$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9619623%45 W · 151 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes44c2,555$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.896434.4%22 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No66c2,476$1,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.4810646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes41c2,007$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.827044.3%31 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked No59c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.992944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa066…710bbacked Yes33c1,752$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.76560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No58c1,650$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69110151.5%52 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72f7…92f7backed No56c1,620$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.593941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+30.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes37c1,530$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.2913334.6%46 W · 87 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No55c1,437$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.7515558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed Yes21c1,394$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.931811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No64c1,391$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.819254.3%50 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x209a…9a8dbacked No66c1,368$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Yes39c1,326$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.4966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+66.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes26c1,252$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.823842.1%16 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes6c1,200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7428434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc02f…5ab7backed Yes41c1,159$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.89911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes20c1,087$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.252142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes42c1,066$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.597436.5%27 W · 47 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed No61c1,054$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.16756.7%38 W · 29 L+11.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+26.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No59c1,041$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.9739952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes35c1,008$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.557828.2%22 W · 56 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+1.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes33c999.98$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.2454934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed No66c999.98$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.9914240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No59c995.4$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.635258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6585…4b9cbacked Yes3c947.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.66520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+33%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No67c930$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30618762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No57c924.97$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.4126355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fc8…d0dbbacked Yes42c902.77$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.16825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-36.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c8c…e36fbacked No60c900$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3601442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c873.62$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.4388448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No55c856.98$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.372755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No71c840.32$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.9718348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes41c833.73$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.4146330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No51c816.97$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.2210634.9%37 W · 69 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93ff…7877backed Yes43c740.75$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+60.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c697.28$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.1636055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc00b…d31bbacked Yes42c694.17$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes5c638.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307027.1%19 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e64…b896backed Yes40c579.2$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+98.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88ee…c234backed Yes32c578.65$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.52633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-41.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd0e0…a7f6backed Yes29c575.95$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.71520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+94.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No59c574$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.1631152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes52c542.5$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.6814632.2%47 W · 99 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No66c490.33$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.7723459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa033…ed47backed Yes34c484.2$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+126.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebab…cee0backed Yes28c483.4$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.2728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+99.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8075…1f74backed Yes43c466.15$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc2e…0d48backed Yes31c454.31$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+133.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb60…71f5backed Yes55c450.5$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b40…e937backed Yes50c422.92$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.333644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed No80c400.01$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.314355.8%24 W · 19 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+52%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a28…d58bbacked Yes50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-65%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a48…ec6ebacked Yes37c398.7$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9658…e446backed Yes41c365.85$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes30c350$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10628430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No68c349.67$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.432354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fa0…e6f1backed Yes34c332.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.4850%4 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+51.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes42c328.49$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1211839%46 W · 72 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes47c319.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.41947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd39…5f76backed Yes48c317.52$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.41825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No75c300.2$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5327438.3%105 W · 169 L-32.3wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x13bb…c279backed Yes34c299.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.52326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked Yes67c299.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x300c…333fbacked No45c273.51$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.91136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99be…d69cbacked Yes44c273.41$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea2…dad5backed Yes55c265$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+107.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5833…4893backed Yes36c263.76$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.87887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick55cpaid+105%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x22dc…7b11backed Yes48c260.08$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.992339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdcd…0fe6backed No65c250$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+55.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No60c248$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.3416051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe646…0be2backed Yes40c247.23$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+93.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes38c243$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3214225.4%36 W · 106 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x268f…bbd7backed Yes53c240.97$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.71728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb2…7f19backed Yes49c240$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.21338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8b9…e006backed Yes42c238.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde88…144cbacked Yes47c234.04$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No35c231.71$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.1316834.5%58 W · 110 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes46c228.26$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10516746.1%77 W · 90 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked No68c227.9$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.934650%23 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2390…a15fbacked Yes47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+46.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes52c210.28$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.698632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe9e…6944backed Yes41c207.17$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.94955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes23c203.84$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3839414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes31c200$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618142%34 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8210844.4%48 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688142%34 W · 47 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6413268.9%91 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09b4…494bbacked No67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2106…4deabacked No46c199.99$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.994431.8%14 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No69c199.99$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6218628.5%53 W · 133 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes27c199$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7331534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.