World Politics · resolved market
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x671a0cb1c18cc4166536648335ee075380776b54b89218999a4cdd842e27168a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebab…cee0backed Yes | 11c | 6,651$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…05c0backed Yes | 12c | 6,216$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.14 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…a5f8backed Yes | 16c | 6,076$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9c…dd3dbacked Yes | 11c | 3,599$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf617…a502backed Yes | 16c | 2,948$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…f507backed Yes | 15c | 2,593$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Yes | 11c | 2,506$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f37…bd84backed Yes | 3c | 2,467$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…7625backed Yes | 4c | 2,296$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa28b…b1a9backed Yes | 2c | 2,232$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…a7f6backed Yes | 10c | 2,130$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…f78ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,981$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.79 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…c234backed Yes | 16c | 1,871$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b7…7135backed Yes | 2c | 1,843$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 13c | 1,746$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…3285backed Yes | 13c | 1,455$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc02f…5ab7backed Yes | 19c | 1,420$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…822ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,283$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…79eebacked Yes | 11c | 1,254$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…57ccbacked Yes | 24c | 1,210$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470f…e804backed Yes | 16c | 1,201$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…ea04backed Yes | 10c | 1,150$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6585…4b9cbacked Yes | 9c | 863.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 848.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6c…4ce7backed Yes | 12c | 819.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2801…9dfebacked Yes | 2c | 770.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dd…ec77backed Yes | 12c | 692.63$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc402…bd32backed Yes | 2c | 621.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 13c | 582.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de7…6f6fbacked Yes | 15c | 485.84$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…340bbacked Yes | 11c | 438.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +180.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c0…97d1backed Yes | 15c | 421.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 385.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 11c | 380$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 369.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 14c | 342$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 14c | 331.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8190…b247backed Yes | 10c | 308.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 24c | 300$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 9c | 265.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2500…2ec7backed Yes | 17c | 206.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f7…7a41backed Yes | 13c | 189.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 10c | 183.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca9…45f8backed Yes | 15c | 177.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 134.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 11c | 123.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…0f92backed Yes | 12c | 122.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 76c | 119$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…de36backed Yes | 15c | 112.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb500…001fbacked Yes | 25c | 110.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 80c | 106.8$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca7…1cc7backed Yes | 15c | 104$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…cc69backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…fe8fbacked Yes | 22c | 90.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…c44ebacked Yes | 15c | 89.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc83e…ac22backed Yes | 23c | 86.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa066…710bbacked No | 78c | 84.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11c…714fbacked Yes | 18c | 82.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf58…ebffbacked Yes | 23c | 80.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 15c | 65.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7976…f3dcbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?this page
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?Yes won
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?No won
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+?No won
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.