TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$88,560
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,541

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,560 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5a21…9318backed No77c6,485$4,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.8152850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ddd…98c3backed Yes33c6,164$2,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,031.25425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+183.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes20c4,617$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.624334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Yes17c3,443$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.15966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+66.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No68c2,634$1,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.4710646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce71…83bcbacked Yes11c2,416$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.342528%7 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc78e…4718backed Yes22c2,262$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.462352.2%12 W · 11 L+5.0wins+0.22per pick30cpaid+23%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes19c2,149$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.786434.4%22 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes18c1,994$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.54633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No76c1,600$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39254934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa066…710bbacked Yes19c1,547$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.75560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No78c1,394$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.9336055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x769c…3d88backed Yes16c1,266$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.31020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72f7…92f7backed Yes14c1,227$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.053941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+30.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd0e0…a7f6backed Yes17c1,197$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+94.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x472a…2dadbacked No75c1,176$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.83862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f4…1d8bbacked Yes23c1,101$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+32.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ee2…062ebacked No64c1,077$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.62475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No79c1,022$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.5435258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No71c975$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.7626355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No77c843.24$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.2831152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed No73c837.12$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.027436.5%27 W · 47 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No78c806.5$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.5214637%54 W · 92 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99be…d69cbacked Yes17c779.03$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.93425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed Yes38c750$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2851145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a9…c455backed Yes36c707.24$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9942…99f4backed Yes15c689.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e95…2525backed Yes15c680.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2390…a15fbacked Yes10c647.45$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+46.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b6d…bec8backed Yes20c607$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+92.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No78c593.46$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.7911741%48 W · 69 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes22c581.92$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.8114225.4%36 W · 106 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x527b…c7bebacked Yes16c579.94$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes18c573.04$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.287044.3%31 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes7c570$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.98632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3bb…ba5abacked Yes20c536.96$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+32.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2521…66e0backed Yes19c527.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+41.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed Yes30c515.39$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.521811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e64…b896backed Yes26c505.01$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+98.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88ee…c234backed Yes8c500.87$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.16633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-41.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes7c499.97$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.55332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e16…aa52backed Yes20c495.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes12c462.63$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.264511.1%5 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fd7…1c90backed Yes15c451.67$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.85922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-51.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes17c421.76$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2616746.1%77 W · 90 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes17c416.41$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702040%8 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+178.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes37c416$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.9210243.1%44 W · 58 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No72c413.12$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.6717330.1%52 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb19…70efbacked Yes14c409.25$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+98.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes15c399.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6014632.2%47 W · 99 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes11c399.52$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.69666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+104.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x22dc…7b11backed Yes21c398.21$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.492339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No70c396.99$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.4918762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked Yes12c379.52$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.545942.4%25 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc399…53abbacked Yes36c373.49$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.81118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-67.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No75c370.65$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7418348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fa0…e6f1backed Yes16c368.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60850%4 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+51.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes23c362$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5410634.9%37 W · 69 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf3…68aebacked Yes17c332.94$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.61241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff13…6d35backed Yes13c326.57$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4360%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7734…4193backed Yes16c315$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.251241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+50.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302871.4%20 W · 8 L+5.0wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+18.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12013268.9%91 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6aa…178ebacked Yes18c272.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+80.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes33c260.17$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.838959.6%53 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes19c250$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.51947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09b4…494bbacked No80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No78c248$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5116051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebab…cee0backed Yes29c241.78$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+99.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8075…1f74backed Yes34c239.97$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes14c230.15$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.846944.9%31 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No79c230$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4920065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes24c219$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4810542.9%45 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No73c212.02$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2532354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab1…5b1bbacked Yes8c206.91$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.551618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-72.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes11c204.84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.339414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x0551…3d39backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4010844.4%48 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.6826632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1415022.7%34 W · 116 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+43%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x90aa…4e76backed Yes18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+93.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51f0…3651backed Yes31c199.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes20c199.62$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1746330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8b9…1f58backed Yes18c166.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+108.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x470f…e804backed Yes17c165.36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb366…c001backed Yes29c157.63$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.88616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cb…0357backed No62c157.11$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.73847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes14c150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.428430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc2e…0d48backed Yes34c147.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+133.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No77c142.85$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.869254.3%50 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb000…e1d5backed Yes14c142.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes24c142$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.348142%34 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No73c140$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.482937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd76…77bdbacked No69c130.41$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.344944.9%22 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes28c126.02$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.568643%37 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06d5…09d5backed Yes29c113.25$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.181442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe702…80fdbacked Yes37c106.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid+25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8340…b29bbacked Yes17c105$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.851136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f2…b327backed Yes31c105$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9730%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes20c100.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.574355.8%24 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.