World Politics · resolved market
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x846fbc1744f9543d339e1a4ceebdc881338e2bc4ad119e5ce9dcfbdd90255760
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ddd…98c3backed Yes | 18c | 10,467$1,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,857.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +183.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9c…dd3dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,057$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 3c | 7,707$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.91 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacc6…236dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,296$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…a7f6backed Yes | 2c | 3,522$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,482$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.9 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…83bcbacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470f…e804backed Yes | 5c | 2,907$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.81 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2521…66e0backed Yes | 4c | 2,411$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbd…0e61backed Yes | 1c | 2,220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,961$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…99f4backed Yes | 5c | 1,819$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,727$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.58 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 10c | 1,458$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.49 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…05c0backed Yes | 10c | 1,453$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.41 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…aa52backed Yes | 7c | 1,365$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…8f22backed Yes | 7c | 1,349$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 1,205$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…b9eebacked Yes | 4c | 1,179$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bb…ba5abacked Yes | 6c | 1,149$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…4a7dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,088$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 3c | 1,070$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…e937backed Yes | 12c | 1,036$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.29 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f7…92f7backed Yes | 4c | 1,035$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…3d88backed Yes | 9c | 1,002$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78e…4718backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +23%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6d…bec8backed Yes | 3c | 953.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 80c | 938$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.81 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f7…7a41backed Yes | 3c | 880.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c8…cfa3backed Yes | 2c | 873.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 853.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…d6bfbacked Yes | 13c | 800$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f5…8565backed Yes | 4c | 683.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +208.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f77…0c3bbacked Yes | 5c | 682.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9533…2313backed Yes | 11c | 589.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a88…4753backed Yes | 3c | 583$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe325…2dc0backed Yes | 2c | 581.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e75…113ebacked Yes | 5c | 548.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc560…f749backed Yes | 15c | 485.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 3c | 448.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 445.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 6c | 417.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 3c | 408.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 6c | 399.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b9…1f58backed Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866f…a120backed Yes | 4c | 293.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9c…b614backed Yes | 10c | 196.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 10c | 191.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…eec2backed Yes | 14c | 144.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 10c | 142.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 57c | 118.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 84.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…af60backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+?this page
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?Yes won
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?No won
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.