TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$178,502
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$189,926

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,502 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed No70c23,744$16,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,734.1411853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59d6…62c8backed Yes30c10,139$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,139.391233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No34c8,636$2,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,946.8134354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No68c7,924$5,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,372.652850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes30c6,150$1,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,293.5714330.8%44 W · 99 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+104.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Yes36c5,935$2,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,788.777451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes27c5,190$1,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,776.37436.5%27 W · 47 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x769c…3d88backed Yes14c4,365$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,743.411020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa43d…00f4backed Yes31c3,422$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,349.041952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed No66c3,280$2,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,174.047044.3%31 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No58c3,250$1,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,872.9317330.1%52 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0414…be21backed Yes21c3,000$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,363.55721.1%12 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e0…a7f6backed Yes10c2,669$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,394.74520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+94.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed Yes8c2,532$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,323.081811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes29c2,069$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,468.977027.1%19 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No76c1,944$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,477.443842.1%16 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes24c1,886$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,428.386434.4%22 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f9c…dd3dbacked No8c1,650$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32d4…b3d3backed Yes16c1,554$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.52875%6 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+204.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xebab…cee0backed Yes8c1,543$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.71728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+99.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc2e…0d48backed Yes11c1,510$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.52837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+133.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ad…2e4fbacked Yes64c1,504$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.96837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes13c1,500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.9918214.8%27 W · 155 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+218.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No78c1,365$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.4615558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc02f…5ab7backed Yes25c1,291$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.46911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88ee…c234backed Yes57c1,190$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.58633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-41.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No79c1,142$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.3731152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No79c1,100$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.5254934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa066…710bbacked Yes24c1,091$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.65560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa23a…da20backed Yes27c1,075$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.892100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+240.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No76c1,040$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.7635258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No69c1,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69010151.5%52 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8c…e36fbacked Yes34c999.98$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.991442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No71c982$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.6726355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd73e…d6bfbacked Yes23c947.43$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.361030%3 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No76c856.98$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.462755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No48c845.86$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.5818348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No66c827.61$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.2836055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes24c800$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60614632.2%47 W · 99 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed No70c750$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.576835.3%24 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No76c695.33$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.3723459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No79c679.36$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.710734.6%37 W · 70 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes15c608.23$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.9922725.1%57 W · 170 L+0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b40…e937backed Yes42c606.73$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.43644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes26c572$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.5646330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb389…8d11backed Yes14c564.71$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Yes28c539.07$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.154161%25 W · 16 L+8.3wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+51.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x6e64…b896backed Yes17c532.49$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.49450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+98.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8b9…e006backed Yes37c517.54$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.751040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes11c515.22$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.2414637%54 W · 92 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8075…1f74backed Yes35c506.55$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x296b…2cf2backed Yes29c500$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.13348.5%16 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+64.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc78e…4718backed Yes28c500$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3622352.2%12 W · 11 L+5.0wins+0.22per pick30cpaid+23%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked No56c499.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.998632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ff…7877backed Yes28c498.23$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.07540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+60.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6585…4b9cbacked Yes15c468.98$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.45520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+33%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03d9…e693backed No3c450$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12825%2 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick3cpaid+692.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No79c436.21$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.3931635.1%111 W · 205 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes17c429.97$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.9828430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cdb…8a82backed Yes70c409.26$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.32933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea2…dad5backed Yes24c394.43$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+107.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff7…94d5backed Yes31c391.87$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.641030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes13c389.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.2214225.4%36 W · 106 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes12c381.43$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.666927.5%19 W · 50 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No42c367.25$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.0516834.5%58 W · 110 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes29c359.24$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.0614240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked Yes47c350.99$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.832842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22dc…7b11backed Yes20c349.77$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.372339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe9e…6944backed Yes28c336.42$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.7955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6418…730cbacked No63c331.52$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-62.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e58…340bbacked Yes15c330.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+180.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No30c329.61$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4813748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes36c322.76$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.1324637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05ac…6d71backed No75c300$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72f7…92f7backed Yes14c287.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.653941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+30.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes15c283$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.3510634.9%37 W · 69 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02e6…c54fbacked Yes33c281.13$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+202.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No59c277.15$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.282937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4064…b7c8backed Yes12c273.56$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick22cpaid+274.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5833…4893backed Yes40c260$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.37887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick55cpaid+105%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Yes25c250$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.55446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No74c250$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1858142%34 W · 47 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c240.8$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.742117.1%15 W · 196 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No65c232.2$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.935332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes13c231$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.942142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No77c220.85$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.4816051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes14c204.57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.027817.9%14 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdba1…d0e5backed Yes25c200$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1511040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No21c196.4$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.313243.9%58 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c65…b9eebacked Yes32c193.62$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.02234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-86.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c190.48$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.5188448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No54c189.32$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9811230.4%34 W · 78 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57cc…da03backed Yes29c183.92$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+241%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab1…5b1bbacked No57c177.9$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.41618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-72.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc83e…ac22backed Yes79c173.15$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.12475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes25c166$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.884759.6%28 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6af6…eec2backed Yes10c165.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.95520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb0…bd65backed No58c163.42$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.461947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No23c163.22$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2815355.6%85 W · 68 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No12c157.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6914656.2%82 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.