Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f352562046739e3113040166c62294e15cd8eeb48b2ee97a62e4faf3cd24b09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $245,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8d7…6f40backed Yes | 1c | 86,533$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…81d2backed Yes | 10c | 19,922$1,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,942.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 19cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 4c | 13,000$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.29 | 119 | 21%25 W · 94 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…7822backed Yes | 6c | 5,875$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 8c | 4,966$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.84 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,349$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…944dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,143$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,185$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 13c | 2,128$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.51 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 2,128$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.81 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 14c | 1,872$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.1 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,840$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,633$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,600$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,534$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 8c | 1,481$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.13 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 5c | 1,471$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 49c | 1,414$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.97 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…b010backed Yes | 20c | 1,184$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f873backed Yes | 8c | 1,178$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…2404backed Yes | 5c | 1,100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 11c | 1,086$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.65 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 20c | 1,064$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.87 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 14c | 922.27$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.68 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 5c | 891.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 6c | 875.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 12c | 858.04$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 11c | 853.32$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 750.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 4c | 742.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed Yes | 12c | 705.7$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 23c | 670$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 653.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 15c | 630.62$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf1…a448backed Yes | 8c | 624.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdc…5a2ebacked Yes | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 10c | 596.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…a817backed Yes | 4c | 559.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 17c | 539.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 11c | 500$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed No | 70c | 500$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 7c | 499.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 27c | 483.01$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5f…c111backed Yes | 12c | 450$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 443.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 18c | 416.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.74 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 6c | 400.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0aa…93cabacked Yes | 8c | 378.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed Yes | 8c | 377.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes | 7c | 375.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes | 7c | 352.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Yes | 13c | 347.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Yes | 5c | 317$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes | 7c | 314.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 7c | 296.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aab…d91cbacked Yes | 18c | 263.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4907…cdc2backed Yes | 22c | 228.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…9fc2backed Yes | 8c | 225.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked Yes | 5c | 224.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…f1f6backed Yes | 17c | 223.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…1ddabacked Yes | 8c | 215.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…d5ebbacked Yes | 23c | 213.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a3…1e80backed Yes | 9c | 212.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65c…52cabacked Yes | 28c | 212$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd00f…1ba0backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 36c | 196.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 5c | 193.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…f7a9backed Yes | 50c | 190.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 18c | 190.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 16c | 188.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 66c | 171.57$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…77d6backed Yes | 8c | 167.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc965…e751backed No | 65c | 159.63$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 65c | 145$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3c…4b3cbacked Yes | 29c | 138.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 24c | 133.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…309dbacked Yes | 16c | 129$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Yes | 27c | 126.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd534…5fd9backed Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 11c | 119$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 12c | 114.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b3…bad4backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…83e5backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 98.4$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 96.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe0…48e5backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3650…d17cbacked Yes | 56c | 79.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 18c | 78.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 59.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x601f…76adbacked Yes | 21c | 55.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc99…90d3backed Yes | 32c | 54.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 31c | 52.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 56c | 52.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?this page
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No won
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No won
- Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Yes won
- Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.