Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d4936122603e355384ebd4c744fddb88155e963ef76ff0fec44d16d85f69fbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00d2…fb50backed Yes | 73c | 4,897$3,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,579.72 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…944dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,622$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked No | 29c | 4,048$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,874.32 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,427$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…d045backed Yes | 5c | 2,108$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 48c | 2,000$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.63 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f873backed Yes | 6c | 1,781$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 30c | 1,550$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.36 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 1c | 1,462$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…9198backed Yes | 2c | 1,331$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 24c | 1,296$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.39 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 1,261$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.39 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 70c | 1,079$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 32c | 999.98$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.99 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…9fc2backed Yes | 1c | 955.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 38c | 953.07$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.42 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…104abacked Yes | 68c | 882.82$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 53c | 855.07$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.45 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 26c | 824.46$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.04 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…6c6fbacked Yes | 32c | 797.69$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.04 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea29…3600backed Yes | 13c | 756.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +72%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 53c | 703.5$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.09 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 682.68$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 8c | 670$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 24c | 653$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.85 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 33c | 620$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 572.68$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 72c | 493.96$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.75 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes | 2c | 492.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 30c | 450.68$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.59 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed Yes | 72c | 400$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 32c | 398.24$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.8 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Yes | 21c | 367.1$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed Yes | 11c | 355.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 57c | 332$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.24 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 310.08$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.32 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 306.72$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.33 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b5c3backed No | 32c | 300$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +383.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 70c | 300$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.3 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932a…bd8cbacked Yes | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 67c | 298.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 76c | 259.24$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.23 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 23c | 254$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.08 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…d5ebbacked Yes | 38c | 237.86$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 237.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f3ccbacked Yes | 5c | 235.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +5.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 52c | 215.86$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 49c | 205.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd534…5fd9backed Yes | 67c | 201.49$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 52c | 192.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 44c | 190.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.17 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 14c | 190.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…b010backed Yes | 27c | 187.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 25c | 185.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7b…5d6dbacked Yes | 7c | 171.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 56c | 169.27$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad6…5e1cbacked No | 63c | 159.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 68c | 154.67$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 147.66$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 43c | 143.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 140.54$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…b0fdbacked Yes | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 56c | 130$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 58c | 129.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…1c5dbacked Yes | 10c | 129$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…f194backed Yes | 12c | 121.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8f…4aeebacked Yes | 42c | 121.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 68c | 120$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.66 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 34c | 119.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 117.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 49c | 115$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 36c | 112.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 34c | 107.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9415…6397backed No | 57c | 105.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +194.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…e77abacked No | 77c | 100.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b0…a92dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4a…5db3backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd2…943bbacked Yes | 65c | 99.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 95.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 92.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 31c | 83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4907…cdc2backed Yes | 37c | 80.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…2fd9backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…1b17backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes | 45c | 79.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 72c | 75.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x492f…8144backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 49c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 57c | 68.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 30c | 65.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?this page
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No won
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No won
- Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Yes won
- Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.