Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa1ece7c17bd380082dd792319353a8e76e9a235cd744304c2f010fd14632bd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 40c | 6,859$2,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,744.87 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed No | 25c | 4,485$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.06 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 44c | 4,359$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460.37 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 76c | 4,183$3,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 3,898$2,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.99 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 57c | 3,778$2,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.9 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 70c | 3,746$2,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.2 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 20c | 3,098$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 42c | 2,686$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,557.88 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 5c | 2,152$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.04 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked Yes | 74c | 2,114$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.64 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…8c8ebacked No | 58c | 2,100$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…7306backed Yes | 36c | 1,640$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.97 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 21c | 1,623$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.58 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 30c | 1,558$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.13 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 55c | 1,536$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.75 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 1,388$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.18 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 1,373$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.35 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 45c | 1,364$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.68 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 58c | 1,327$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.48 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…7822backed Yes | 34c | 1,310$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 40c | 1,211$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.3 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 39cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 32c | 1,207$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.6 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,201$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.98 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 3c | 1,190$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…9411backed No | 61c | 1,177$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.68 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 1,128$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.11 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…a817backed Yes | 72c | 1,115$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.64 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 67c | 1,100$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.54 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 19c | 1,079$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 26c | 1,038$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.26 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 1,023$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.68 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Yes | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…08fdbacked Yes | 77c | 941.95$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 26c | 840.94$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.2 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 28c | 825.59$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.19 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 70c | 699.17$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.04 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 36c | 696.94$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.94 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 45c | 670$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 641$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.92 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 16c | 630.01$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1308…45c6backed No | 26c | 626.16$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 76c | 600$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.5 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 25c | 561.29$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.72 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 36c | 542.25$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.75 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 47c | 536.92$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.13 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf708…f235backed No | 4c | 526.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…e2eebacked Yes | 78c | 512.8$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 41c | 449.98$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 33c | 440.19$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.19 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7423…c55fbacked Yes | 23c | 420$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1890…20ebbacked Yes | 48c | 414.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 400.74$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.33 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 384.59$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.72 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc59…fce1backed Yes | 54c | 368.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 365.11$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.52 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…a64abacked Yes | 80c | 344.97$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 53c | 296.42$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.29 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 41c | 289$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.05 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…f7a9backed Yes | 79c | 285.75$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 15c | 285$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 65c | 283$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.54 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…d3fdbacked Yes | 77c | 257$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aab…d91cbacked Yes | 51c | 254.58$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.94 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeac…b326backed Yes | 19c | 253.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 56c | 244.84$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.89 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 24c | 244.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 27c | 236.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.92 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 31c | 231$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 75c | 225.3$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…309dbacked Yes | 56c | 221.13$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 29c | 219.55$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 18c | 215.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes | 69c | 195.57$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…4f75backed No | 45c | 192.13$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 43c | 190.32$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.38 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 77c | 187.03$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 21c | 185.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.27 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 8c | 180.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 78c | 178$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 26c | 177.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.78 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 49c | 174.04$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 54c | 173.62$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Yes | 76c | 172$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…56f8backed No | 51c | 167.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…dabfbacked No | 57c | 162$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 60c | 159.2$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 157.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 9c | 156.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.26 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…50c8backed Yes | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 14c | 149$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.14 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…712abacked No | 68c | 146.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 27c | 144.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508f…775fbacked Yes | 74c | 141$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993b…dedabacked Yes | 51c | 138.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 138.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 75c | 138$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 49c | 138$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?this page
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No won
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No won
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No won
- Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.