Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb60e7ef9dbaa41adc591e7daedfb759aac90994cba2419426330848e4fbb1d65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $196,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 29c | 25,859$7,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,555.77 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 15c | 23,216$3,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,592.59 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 18c | 14,000$2,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,537.15 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed No | 64c | 11,220$7,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,025.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 29c | 7,182$2,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090.04 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 24c | 6,135$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.34 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 2c | 5,837$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.38 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 49c | 3,178$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.92 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 79c | 3,171$2,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.63 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 74c | 2,945$2,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.46 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 2,349$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.1 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,039$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.49 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 16c | 1,896$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 11c | 1,578$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.67 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 21c | 1,551$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.4 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 67c | 1,487$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 38c | 1,093$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.36 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 1,085$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.44 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes | 35c | 1,075$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.76 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 1,043$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.69 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0aa…93cabacked No | 62c | 1,004$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…f1d7backed Yes | 17c | 1,002$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…094cbacked Yes | 40c | 949.99$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdefa…d902backed Yes | 1c | 936.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 17c | 933$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.33 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 15c | 932.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 930$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.44 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 15c | 915.37$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…c498backed No | 60c | 901.45$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 4c | 873.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 49c | 858.92$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.58 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 841.65$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 78c | 800$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 754.34$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 7c | 737.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…534dbacked Yes | 14c | 734.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 727$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.09 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 703.77$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.13 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed No | 33c | 699.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.99 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +268.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 58c | 696.65$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.9 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 18c | 665$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 18c | 640.78$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.34 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 637.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2b…a201backed No | 58c | 621.87$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61be…804dbacked Yes | 31c | 558.19$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…73cfbacked No | 43c | 515.33$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…7c0bbacked Yes | 27c | 507.37$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 33c | 493.23$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.27 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed16…51e3backed Yes | 7c | 478.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 10c | 450.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aab…d91cbacked Yes | 16c | 425.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 74c | 405.5$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 18c | 399.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed No | 50c | 399.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.83 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 6c | 377.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 357$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.56 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa73…d943backed No | 80c | 330$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…61dcbacked Yes | 36c | 299.95$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.88 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 65c | 283.77$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.77 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 270$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.31 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…287fbacked No | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.05 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +348.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed No | 57c | 243.93$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.13 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed Yes | 13c | 235.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…e2eebacked Yes | 27c | 233.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 6c | 230$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 69c | 228.48$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Yes | 24c | 207.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 17c | 190.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 15c | 188.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 57c | 184.67$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…6a42backed Yes | 19c | 183.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65c…52cabacked Yes | 19c | 183.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 34c | 177.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…3f0ebacked No | 45c | 175.56$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 13c | 163.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 12c | 149.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 11c | 148.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf1…a448backed No | 68c | 146.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 130.01$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 9c | 125.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 121.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 11c | 119$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 16c | 118.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 59c | 115$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…8a6abacked Yes | 42c | 113.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 18c | 111.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes | 19c | 110.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbb…9e7cbacked No | 53c | 109.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 43c | 108.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 33c | 107.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 30c | 103.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b3…bad4backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…da67backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 56c | 97.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 96.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 53c | 94.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?this page
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No won
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No won
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No won
- Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.