World Politics · resolved market
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab65da980c48cc067b9c27f9d39db7d3d1d1e69d6058a87c93abe0f2c38b54df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 11c | 13,682$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.2 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 66c | 5,300$3,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,777.14 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 52c | 3,288$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.58 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 7c | 3,201$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.93 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…534ebacked Yes | 76c | 1,961$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.28 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 72cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 35c | 1,696$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.68 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 21c | 1,335$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.33 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 19c | 1,122$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.68 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 3c | 999.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 18c | 999.97$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked No | 6c | 925.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 73c | 800$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 51c | 682.85$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.6 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 32c | 661.87$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.96 | 100 | 38%38 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…c40bbacked Yes | 79c | 620.4$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.28 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 19c | 574.02$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.43 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 43c | 560$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.8 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 38c | 557.38$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.37 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 21c | 554.01$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 29c | 442.04$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.01 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 78c | 400$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x625b…3a3ebacked Yes | 75c | 399.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…746dbacked Yes | 76c | 392.16$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d8…77d8backed Yes | 59c | 375.01$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 360.27$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.38 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 16c | 349.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 30c | 349.6$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.32 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed No | 48c | 308$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.84 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 4c | 305.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 287.58$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0169…0096backed Yes | 52c | 280.35$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.35 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 44c | 262.74$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.97 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 22c | 229.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 49c | 211.51$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.83 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…178ebacked Yes | 53c | 203.83$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 24c | 198.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5923…49cdbacked Yes | 76c | 184.67$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 49c | 169.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed No | 35c | 167.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…d719backed Yes | 73c | 160$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +45%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 22c | 156.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 50c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 21c | 149.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…ed66backed No | 15c | 148.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 23c | 143$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b0…0664backed Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 49c | 140.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 49c | 140$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 18c | 139.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.99 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 18c | 138.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 71c | 131.72$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3362…3ac6backed No | 49c | 130$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 43c | 120.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x384c…2688backed No | 43c | 118.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 116$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…8be6backed No | 47c | 100.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…e8b7backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…a39dbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…0d81backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…8d83backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…4811backed Yes | 70c | 99.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 49c | 97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed No | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 75c | 94.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 15c | 93.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 14c | 91.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 17c | 90.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7734…4193backed Yes | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab0…06fdbacked No | 47c | 88.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 66c | 86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe12c…def5backed No | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked No | 62c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 38c | 72.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf276…8fbfbacked Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 52c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 57c | 69.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 21c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…2edcbacked No | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b95…0d70backed Yes | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…967cbacked Yes | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 76c | 64.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8540…47d4backed No | 63c | 63.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…ae28backed Yes | 65c | 61.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3650…d17cbacked No | 63c | 61.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Yes | 71c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…e0d7backed Yes | 59c | 53.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…9338backed Yes | 60c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…82f5backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?this page
- Will Elsa Pinto win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?No won
- Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?No won
- Will Nito Abreu win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.