World Politics · resolved market
Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0517417204374a70dbcd34b5fa0e4019b4f669150bcce9eb064a4191cb908513
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked No | 62c | 1,877$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.72 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 42c | 932$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed No | 48c | 255.67$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 47c | 237.06$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.72 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 25c | 206.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 7c | 205.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 199.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed No | 79c | 170$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 165$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…7627backed Yes | 41c | 165$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 74c | 132$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 80c | 119$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 110$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d2…0868backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 59c | 85.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 13c | 77.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 73c | 73.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 65.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3150…3be9backed Yes | 38c | 59.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 40c | 58.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 51.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf0…9180backed Yes | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef2a…a4a4backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 74c | 33.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 23.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 23.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb92a…f51cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…a10dbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?this page
- Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?Yes won
- Will Elsa Pinto win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?No won
- Will Nito Abreu win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.