World Politics · resolved market
Will Nito Abreu win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa415e531fd87e421be5cae94f32c6e03915d6e37eedbe69382089b6649dac71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 10c | 7,822$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.06 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 21c | 1,958$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.62 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,881$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.81 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 10c | 1,813$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.36 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…c40bbacked No | 78c | 1,430$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.52 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 561.26$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.12 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 79c | 553.99$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.32 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 22c | 463$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 408$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 77c | 343$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.69 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 287.59$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 13c | 266$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 74c | 262.74$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 22c | 216.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…560ebacked Yes | 14c | 207.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 21c | 163$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 151.35$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 148$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 126$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55f4…4021backed Yes | 29c | 112.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 104.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…8d83backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 72c | 70.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 78c | 69.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 72c | 61.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed No | 71c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 22c | 54.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…9338backed Yes | 26c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c80…4e2bbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 23c | 43.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 71c | 29.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…4811backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 80c | 23.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 75c | 20.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…2925backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15a…7186backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15bb…6ca6backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd823…12febacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed No | 74c | 13.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nito Abreu win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?this page
- Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?Yes won
- Will Elsa Pinto win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?No won
- Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.