Middle East · resolved market

Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09508d57e81543629e170ccd145e0da1d1c1fa68817914336c0dff4e1993d230

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $126,644
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $104,717

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,644 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes	12c	13,931$1,636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,635.86	55	23.6%13 W · 42 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	10c	6,225$631 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630.99	359	21.4%77 W · 282 L	-23.8wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b67…b814backed Yes	10c	5,227$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.33	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+117.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes	4c	3,709$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.6	42	21.4%9 W · 33 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaae1…dee4backed Yes	5c	3,395$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes	1c	3,120$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.59	382	47.6%182 W · 200 L	+37.1wins	+0.10per pick	38cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,982$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.8	507	1.4%7 W · 500 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No	64c	2,936$1,884 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,051.66	296	53.7%159 W · 137 L	+20.2wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+104.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	8c	2,578$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.98	421	20.9%88 W · 333 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	4c	2,521$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.78	678	41.6%282 W · 396 L	-20.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed No	76c	2,200$1,665 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$535.38	113	34.5%39 W · 74 L	-7.5wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c66…44f3backed Yes	34c	1,853$626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$626.17	35	31.4%11 W · 24 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes	20c	1,522$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.91	356	31.7%113 W · 243 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	10c	1,199$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.23	423	11.6%49 W · 374 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No	72c	1,172$840 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$331.52	247	59.1%146 W · 101 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d4…9002backed Yes	18c	1,161$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.5	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+3.6wins	+0.24per pick	23cpaid	+124.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	13c	1,100$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.84	217	26.7%58 W · 159 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	79	38%30 W · 49 L	+9.6wins	+0.12per pick	26cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	358	8.7%31 W · 327 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+99.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb99…9ff1backed Yes	12c	995.01$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.23	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes	11c	929.07$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	473	34%161 W · 312 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	11c	927.19$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.81	342	34.8%119 W · 223 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes	5c	865.61$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.28	107	47.7%51 W · 56 L	+6.6wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+26%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	21c	855.38$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.77	64	9.4%6 W · 58 L	-4.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes	11c	822.81$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.54	110	37.3%41 W · 69 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes	26c	785.62$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.47	175	30.9%54 W · 121 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes	9c	672.32$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.84	153	38.6%59 W · 94 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes	14c	660$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.49	124	32.3%40 W · 84 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3437…f8f3backed No	56c	600$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264	159	53.5%85 W · 74 L	+16.6wins	+0.10per pick	43cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes	10c	596.88$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.3	181	35.9%65 W · 116 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes	15c	504.42$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	247	12.1%30 W · 217 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes	7c	500$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.5	103	9.7%10 W · 93 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes	7c	499.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	86	26.7%23 W · 63 L	+8.7wins	+0.10per pick	17cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes	10c	495.28$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.37	366	26.8%98 W · 268 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1877…78d7backed Yes	11c	466.12$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked Yes	12c	464$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.76	161	31.7%51 W · 110 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb254…ee4fbacked Yes	9c	422.22$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x738a…5996backed No	64c	418.21$269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.01	94	54.3%51 W · 43 L	+12.6wins	+0.13per pick	41cpaid	+52.5%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	10c	400$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	462	5%23 W · 439 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f36…89cabacked Yes	4c	400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	+8.4wins	+0.15per pick	27cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes	20c	385$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.55	90	40%36 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Yes	8c	315.39$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.23	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	-7.4wins	-0.14per pick	41cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	13c	283.53$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.49	288	27.8%80 W · 208 L	-10.4wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x369c…eab1backed Yes	28c	256.52$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-8.3wins	-0.14per pick	43cpaid	-34%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2425…3dd1backed Yes	20c	250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	121	39.7%48 W · 73 L	+13.8wins	+0.11per pick	28cpaid	+39.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes	7c	216.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.73	42	31%13 W · 29 L	+6.1wins	+0.14per pick	17cpaid	+58.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeeee…ccb7backed No	72c	212.27$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.76	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed Yes	23c	188.83$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.79	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	+2.9wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b22…74ecbacked Yes	20c	185$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	114	32.5%37 W · 77 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dd…a04ebacked No	67c	179.1$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.1	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40a6…133cbacked No	58c	172.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.08	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73c1…28f3backed Yes	26c	165$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.45	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	8c	165$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.65	53	32.1%17 W · 36 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd39…5f76backed Yes	31c	160.42$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.73	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cdb…8a82backed Yes	23c	155.3$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.03	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	15c	152.3$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.46	122	23%28 W · 94 L	+12.1wins	+0.10per pick	13cpaid	+2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae31…7fa1backed No	57c	150$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.5	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	+9.6wins	+0.23per pick	23cpaid	+79%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0x1547…d066backed No	74c	150$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39	73	50.7%37 W · 36 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f13…3a2dbacked No	57c	150$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.5	83	51.8%43 W · 40 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes	9c	150$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	85	15.3%13 W · 72 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	9c	149.97$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.79	413	6.8%28 W · 385 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2b3…47b6backed Yes	15c	137.27$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	20c	135.58$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.75	396	21%83 W · 313 L	-57.0wins	-0.14per pick	35cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes	12c	135$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.55	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a8…865abacked Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+2.9wins	+0.12per pick	14cpaid	+97.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	14c	118.9$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.44	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f95…6ebebacked Yes	32c	117$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.44	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3650…d17cbacked Yes	32c	116.66$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.33	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2db…ffcbbacked Yes	32c	112.8$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.1	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	58cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27da…d24abacked No	71c	110$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.9	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…dcc6backed Yes	25c	107.69$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.19	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	35cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2277…6604backed Yes	32c	104.34$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.39	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	104	26%27 W · 77 L	+5.7wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+101.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac38…efffbacked Yes	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	61	31.1%19 W · 42 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f99…2d89backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be4…dcbbbacked No	60c	100$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	78	64.1%50 W · 28 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x09b4…494bbacked Yes	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	30cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9448…b72ebacked Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58ce…57c4backed Yes	34c	99.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.66	69	34.8%24 W · 45 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed No	68c	99.99$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32	26	61.5%16 W · 10 L	+3.3wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+72.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc935…74cfbacked Yes	15c	94$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.18	88	58%51 W · 37 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8199…bb6dbacked No	69c	92.48$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.12	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+3.7wins	+0.16per pick	40cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	13c	91$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.82	228	2.6%6 W · 222 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9362…d4a4backed Yes	35c	80$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87b9…b193backed No	64c	78.13$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.13	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	64cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd104…7c02backed No	58c	77.59$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.59	103	59.2%61 W · 42 L	+16.6wins	+0.16per pick	43cpaid	+48%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No	70c	76$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.14	186	40.9%76 W · 110 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-20%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	28c	74.87$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.88	857	25.2%216 W · 641 L	-115.1wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3c91…b4d2backed No	57c	74.6$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.39	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-2.1wins	-0.30per pick	59cpaid	-54%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd677…a495backed No	68c	73.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.15	87	44.8%39 W · 48 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	24c	72$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.98	865	42.3%366 W · 499 L	-3.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f0…672bbacked No	64c	67.33$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.24	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes	25c	67.07$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.77	589	27.2%160 W · 429 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b57…5fbcbacked No	69c	64.66$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.04	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	26cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd24d…c173backed No	57c	61.4$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.4	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-3.4wins	-0.29per pick	62cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x319b…f04ebacked Yes	42c	59.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.15	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-3.0wins	-0.22per pick	50cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x85ba…e33abacked Yes	29c	58.21$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.72	34	50%17 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf15…3b51backed Yes	25c	55.19$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.96	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	46cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x63e0…4ca5backed No	65c	55$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+3.3wins	+0.17per pick	53cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?this page
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event