Middle East · resolved market
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x555443f34b29be9207c40aaef440de7964ed8fa706a95c076f4fc965ac1820bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 242 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 11,125$8,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.11 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…83c7backed Yes | 2c | 4,236$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +235.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 3,260$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 14c | 3,135$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.86 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…0b29backed Yes | 59c | 2,511$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.48 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 2,462$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 39c | 2,386$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.37 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 14c | 2,280$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.55 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed No | 71c | 2,239$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.45 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,216$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.05 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 54c | 2,184$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.73 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,916$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4550…2398backed Yes | 25c | 1,850$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 1,685$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.3 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…5943backed Yes | 5c | 1,448$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed Yes | 14c | 1,391$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,259$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,206$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked Yes | 9c | 1,206$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.45 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 34c | 1,092$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.21 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 1,055$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0543…8d20backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 979.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 966.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 59c | 907.46$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.99 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b91…a535backed Yes | 10c | 900$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed Yes | 55c | 865.42$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.61 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 70c | 823.82$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.17 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 22c | 788.45$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.62 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked No | 37c | 774.68$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.44 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 27c | 764.93$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.26 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f7…77c3backed No | 40c | 743.9$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.9 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be0…b065backed Yes | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.45per pick | 26cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 80c | 687.35$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.14 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 61c | 686.65$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.61 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed Yes | 31c | 680$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 661.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 44c | 659.53$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0777…4b7fbacked Yes | 7c | 644$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1da…3b79backed No | 66c | 602.9$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eca…ab82backed Yes | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 28cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…051ebacked Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed No | 38c | 599.99$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.46 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 3c | 586.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 44c | 551.36$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.2 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 72c | 550$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 50c | 548.8$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.5 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 22c | 541.59$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.29 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 71c | 523.91$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.89 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 520$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3bb1backed Yes | 61c | 516.98$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.92 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…c321backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 52c | 488.26$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.02 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 48c | 456.1$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.54 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 8c | 450$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed Yes | 53c | 433.79$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 30c | 411.26$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.62 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…d287backed Yes | 9c | 384.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed Yes | 31c | 364.8$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.69 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 41c | 338.01$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.83 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad6…5e1cbacked Yes | 50c | 331.05$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.86 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0443…2221backed Yes | 45c | 315.78$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a5…5d5fbacked Yes | 5c | 309.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked Yes | 68c | 307.06$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.8 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 63c | 306$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.7 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 30c | 301.25$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed Yes | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…d8c5backed Yes | 12c | 297.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…9e91backed Yes | 9c | 264.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 63c | 262.5$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.38 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 260.53$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.32 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af1…6b27backed No | 71c | 259$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed Yes | 38c | 254.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 8c | 250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 228.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 42c | 222.73$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.18 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…30b9backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a8…6e61backed Yes | 23c | 215.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 44c | 210$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 23c | 210$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 208.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.06 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Yes | 51c | 203.33$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…23a0backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5979…7fbdbacked Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6d…76f5backed No | 39c | 199.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 20c | 182.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 19c | 180$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 34c | 176.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 52c | 172.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.84 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked No | 77c | 171.21$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed Yes | 22c | 170$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed Yes | 59c | 167.76$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da0…83f0backed Yes | 78c | 166.25$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?this page
- Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes won
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.