TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x095b…8a05

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
109
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Valorant, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Valorant at 52 out of 100; worst Tweets at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT2317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-42.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Tweets — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$41
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+403.9%+$67.33
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.8
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$15
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.17
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+317.5%+$81.36
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.69
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.2
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.45
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.13
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.65
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.82
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.63
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.3
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.2
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.82
All 23 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2015%3 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-68.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.57
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.7
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.19
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.44
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$96
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.97
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.72
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.48
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.46
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.35
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.74
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+67.1%+$44.49
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+78.5%+$89.04
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.23
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.83
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$288Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$288
All 20 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT1827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-51.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.62
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+90.5%+$9.5
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.37
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.51
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.33
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.72
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$23.56
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$24
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.22
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.8
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$35.52
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$9.62
All 18 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.24
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+380.8%+$39.6
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+424.8%+$254.17
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.4
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.55
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Meta "Mango" model released by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.40T and $1.50T on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.16
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.88
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$64.26
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.7
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.1
All 15 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-52.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$30.5
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$10.5
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.82
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.6
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
All 8 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-60.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.8
Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$6.4
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.8
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.7
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$20.5
Will Calvin Lee advance from the CA-34 primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.03
All 8 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omegabacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$110
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.