Middle East · resolved market
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5637eb90bbff16379b6d87f6b4ac81cf5fbe9916a6c41b50d7d7dabef3cbc2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed No | 49c | 9,426$4,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,604.91 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed Yes | 45c | 4,102$1,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,240.45 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0c…fbb7backed Yes | 47c | 2,961$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,563.8 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 2,723$1,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.95 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 21c | 2,700$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 51c | 2,150$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 10c | 2,063$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.08 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce94…36cebacked No | 3c | 1,630$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 77c | 1,555$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.1 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9bf5backed No | 14c | 1,200$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 58c | 1,076$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 991.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 22c | 884.98$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.65 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b9…4d3abacked No | 19c | 804.47$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.6 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 23c | 754.21$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.86 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 78c | 746.85$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.85 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 45c | 745.64$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.08 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 5c | 740$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed No | 19c | 729.62$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.83 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 45c | 705.55$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.53 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 41c | 680.06$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.02 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked No | 8c | 602.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed Yes | 31c | 533.05$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.89 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 47c | 508.41$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.12 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…2673backed Yes | 39c | 506.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.52 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.37per pick | 32cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 33c | 475.41$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.9 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 20c | 456.88$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 31c | 420.51$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.47 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed Yes | 62c | 412.65$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.85 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 405.17$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 45c | 396.24$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.31 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked Yes | 52c | 375$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.72 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 68c | 361.58$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.92 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 25c | 340.45$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed Yes | 78c | 333$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked Yes | 76c | 324.15$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…a3c9backed No | 17c | 317.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…9eb9backed No | 11c | 305.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed Yes | 36c | 301.62$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.62 | 78 | 37.2%29 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 66c | 300$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.74 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad6…5e1cbacked Yes | 58c | 299.94$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.98 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed No | 67c | 285.06$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -7.9wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x04c3…9a7cbacked No | 35c | 275.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.56 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 66c | 255$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.49 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa50e…583ebacked Yes | 40c | 237.48$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 62c | 236.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.52 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 49c | 226.77$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.68 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 78c | 225.37$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.47 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f83…643fbacked Yes | 19c | 225$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.25 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 50c | 209.43$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.66 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 207$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.81 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 206.1$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.54 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed Yes | 56c | 202.42$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e5…99f9backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 73c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…9352backed Yes | 70c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x566d…c460backed No | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 199.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 27c | 198.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 46c | 192.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…b686backed No | 60c | 181.31$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.41 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed No | 10c | 175$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed No | 64c | 157.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed Yes | 54c | 155.36$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 41c | 152.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed Yes | 58c | 149.91$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 141.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4c…d6a2backed Yes | 71c | 139.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 40c | 136.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 45c | 134.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…8b40backed Yes | 38c | 130.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.97 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 63c | 130.12$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 129.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b5c3backed Yes | 51c | 126.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad30…8272backed Yes | 35c | 119.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +188%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 37c | 119$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 49c | 115.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 59c | 115.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 78c | 112.01$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…e77abacked No | 64c | 110$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -15.5wins | -0.33per pick | 69cpaid | -51%equal weight | 26-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 51c | 107.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22b…0673backed No | 44c | 105.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…34f6backed No | 10c | 105.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb02c…ced9backed Yes | 40c | 105$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed No | 46c | 101$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +16.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +48%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…a718backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 66c | 89.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed No | 63c | 89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebf…4b6cbacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +203%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed No | 19c | 79.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 13c | 77.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0708…f218backed Yes | 36c | 77.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 34c | 76.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?this page
- Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?No won
- Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?Yes won
- Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.