Middle East · resolved market
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x406e0d8cfae33d844448acefab4862f89f82849a7bc6dde73b97aaa702e96be4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 3c | 2,291$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed Yes | 11c | 1,882$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.1 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…5943backed Yes | 3c | 1,728$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.25 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 4c | 917.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 891.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 4c | 596.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 593.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 5c | 576.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 8c | 544.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 9c | 483$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 447$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 5c | 346.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 277.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 223.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 6c | 210.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 7c | 208.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 13c | 187$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked No | 56c | 158.04$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad6…5e1cbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…5bc9backed Yes | 24c | 140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 78 | 37.2%29 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb02c…ced9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x264a…c8b0backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?this page
- Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?No won
- Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?Yes won
- Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?Yes won
- Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.