Middle East · resolved market
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2afb5c2082d800a5be6df0156de0213f67e382f2a5f66e0ccdc4739b48be07e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2132…7657backed Yes | 42c | 3,212$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,854.84 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 40c | 2,106$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.19 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 63c | 1,642$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 55c | 1,533$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.08 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 79c | 1,447$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.84 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 32c | 1,200$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.66 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 1,158$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 33c | 983.67$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.95 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 5c | 739.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked No | 65c | 572.41$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.68 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 40c | 534.48$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.33 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed No | 65c | 463.42$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -7.9wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 73c | 369.9$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.31 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 351.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 28c | 330.43$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…a718backed Yes | 72c | 300$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.91 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 50c | 249.62$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.16 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 239.79$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 40c | 186.32$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.33 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa519…e0b2backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 61c | 158.32$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.91 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 156.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 9c | 149.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…23e1backed No | 46c | 139$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 67c | 134.79$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2589…bb9cbacked No | 36c | 127.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 59c | 121.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 119.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed No | 43c | 115.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed Yes | 79c | 105.44$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed No | 65c | 104.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -12.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 23c | 104$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked Yes | 30c | 101.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…9352backed Yes | 73c | 100.01$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x566d…c460backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…a9c4backed Yes | 31c | 89.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 26c | 78.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 15c | 77.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 62c | 77.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 61c | 76.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed No | 53c | 74.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…e666backed No | 67c | 74.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…f927backed Yes | 35c | 72.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d6…dd72backed No | 71c | 70.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 72c | 70.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 42c | 70.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 80c | 68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 27c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked Yes | 33c | 64.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 60.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked No | 31c | 54.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264f…cd38backed Yes | 64c | 53.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 29c | 51.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +16.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +48%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbc99…7041backed No | 58c | 50.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed No | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 23c | 48.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 27c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 72c | 43.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 40.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f3ccbacked No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…74cfbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…e77abacked No | 53c | 36.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -15.5wins | -0.33per pick | 69cpaid | -51%equal weight | 26-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 36.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 46c | 31.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…1bbebacked No | 69c | 29.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebf3…804cbacked Yes | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2d…de68backed No | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…c15fbacked Yes | 73c | 20.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +109%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 58c | 20.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec7…ab82backed Yes | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…a85bbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?this page
- Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?No won
- Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?Yes won
- Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.