Middle East · resolved market
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a3914e8988c0713c57438810702a30c7901b3875d25f5e2d0f5c4c66025e2fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2132…7657backed Yes | 48c | 4,269$2,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,231.64 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 27c | 3,334$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.76 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 57c | 1,900$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…6e99backed No | 37c | 1,535$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19cc…c4fdbacked Yes | 78c | 1,406$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 28c | 1,199$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.81 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 77c | 1,174$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.24 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 32c | 958.55$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.51 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…cc30backed Yes | 32c | 855.89$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.67 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 35c | 832$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.84 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 22c | 793.66$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.61 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 5c | 739.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 42c | 724.67$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.55 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed No | 60c | 722.61$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -7.9wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 79c | 509.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 74c | 499.9$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.97 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed Yes | 23c | 444$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.88 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…d308backed Yes | 78c | 438.08$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.49 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 428.19$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.5 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 39c | 396.97$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.97 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 4c | 360$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0a…a9e0backed Yes | 58c | 343.62$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed No | 53c | 246.46$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 40c | 243.44$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 229.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 51c | 217.47$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.43 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…23e1backed No | 50c | 193.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 22c | 191.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…e666backed No | 59c | 169.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 52c | 165.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad6…5e1cbacked Yes | 50c | 161.25$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 70c | 161.03$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.49 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 20c | 159.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55dc…19a3backed No | 32c | 156.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked No | 29c | 154.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 32c | 143.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 72c | 142.62$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 138.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed No | 48c | 135.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 47c | 134.82$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.21 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa519…e0b2backed No | 33c | 120.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 41c | 116.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed No | 74c | 110$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -12.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…c82bbacked No | 61c | 109.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2948…788abacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +8.0wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…9352backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x566d…c460backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 55c | 95.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 42c | 95.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.34 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked Yes | 39c | 93.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed No | 57c | 88.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 60c | 83.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 82.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…178abacked Yes | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 74.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 67c | 67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 24c | 63.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +16.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +48%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x966b…2ee6backed No | 63c | 60.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…4d47backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 51c | 55.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 41c | 54.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 54c | 53.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b3…bad4backed Yes | 64c | 51.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…78b9backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…be4dbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495a…f3a7backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…efffbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…07cfbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 43c | 49.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x654a…cc32backed No | 30c | 49.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 34c | 48.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…a718backed Yes | 72c | 47.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 37c | 46.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 39c | 44.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 51c | 42.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…9f54backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…e682backed No | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…b686backed No | 63c | 30.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec2d…de68backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb02c…ced9backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaf…b9eabacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 73c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 58c | 25.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x410d…4c78backed Yes | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…91e5backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -7.0wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -47%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…f927backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed No | 61c | 24.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 64c | 22.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…2443backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…e77abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -15.5wins | -0.33per pick | 69cpaid | -51%equal weight | 26-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb010…2930backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?this page
- Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?No won
- Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?Yes won
- Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?Yes won
- Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.