Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x280ad24d6f4345467fb7ffa203e0a64cc31a627f8a64b70605750b8eccb85fb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecc2…3eb6backed Yes | 77c | 1,035$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.58 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed No | 12c | 714.36$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.69 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 7c | 481.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6db…a8f6backed Yes | 75c | 472.81$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 70c | 378.3$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.14 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1e…1e21backed Yes | 67c | 329.16$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 24c | 231.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1211…e78ebacked Yes | 73c | 193.41$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked No | 25c | 188.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 25c | 170$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 74c | 135.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 26c | 130.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 28c | 119.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc697…412bbacked No | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 19c | 106.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 73c | 102.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…3485backed No | 22c | 91.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked No | 20c | 88.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed No | 25c | 85.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 24c | 76.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…41afbacked Yes | 80c | 72.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 27c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 74c | 59.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 24c | 58.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f1…078abacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdb…8a82backed No | 26c | 43.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +108%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bd…c685backed No | 31c | 38.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…2adcbacked Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.