Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6045d0c316ddb862b34ae0359e43c608b482ed2c72470a8a5a2d482ad6436d8

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 31, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $18,961
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $18,772

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,961 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x54a7…881bbacked Yes	59c	900$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$531	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2106…4deabacked No	35c	648.49$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$423.77	44	31.8%14 W · 30 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No	62c	552$342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.76	106	34.9%37 W · 69 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	35c	500.06$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.95	193	15.5%30 W · 163 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3fd…d854backed No	59c	418.47$247 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.57	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes	78c	300$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	41c	259.97$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.7	528	50.8%268 W · 260 L	+20.9wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc43…810dbacked No	48c	259.74$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.06	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73bc…e60dbacked Yes	59c	255.46$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.59per pick	59cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42af…048dbacked Yes	55c	251.15$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.93	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.26per pick	66cpaid	-49%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes	54c	246.07$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.88	184	45.7%84 W · 100 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No	51c	244.65$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	183	48.6%89 W · 94 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0bef…3b06backed No	60c	210.52$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.21	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-2.3wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-29%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd515…2c54backed No	77c	202.72$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.62	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+51.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes	58c	200$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116	132	68.9%91 W · 41 L	+6.4wins	+0.05per pick	64cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked No	34c	195.92$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.97	150	22.7%34 W · 116 L	+8.6wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+43%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	46c	183.1$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.62	1,318	43.9%579 W · 739 L	-26.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a28…d58bbacked No	61c	163.93$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.93	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-3.1wins	-0.22per pick	44cpaid	-65%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No	45c	152.77$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.02	69	44.9%31 W · 38 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd00f…1ba0backed Yes	56c	150$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.76	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ba…4cedbacked Yes	69c	148.96$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.69per pick	69cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7105…b9bbbacked Yes	56c	142.76$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x428f…5d1bbacked Yes	58c	139.82$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.1	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.27per pick	43cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x47c1…97eabacked Yes	58c	138.97$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.6	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.26per pick	59cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes	61c	131.96$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.5	50	58%29 W · 21 L	+4.6wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xded2…d8c5backed Yes	52c	125.1$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No	52c	125$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.58	399	52.4%209 W · 190 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No	49c	115.44$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.05	86	43%37 W · 49 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2277…6604backed No	61c	114.59$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.69	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No	48c	111.17$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.22	98	50%49 W · 49 L	+16.1wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+40.4%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0xc24f…220bbacked No	53c	108.25$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.72	14	85.7%12 W · 2 L	+4.5wins	+0.32per pick	53cpaid	+50.2%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb3b0…8501backed No	61c	107.14$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.78	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-18%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No	46c	98.62$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.87	463	30.2%140 W · 323 L	-20.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-19%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	26c	94.49$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	990	17.2%170 W · 820 L	-148.8wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	34-0.15 edge/pick
0x0655…475dbacked Yes	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No	50c	90$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.6	105	42.9%45 W · 60 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No	61c	86$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.54	102	43.1%44 W · 58 L	-6.1wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No	61c	85$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.15	118	39%46 W · 72 L	-13.1wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1073…4811backed Yes	64c	77.96$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.16per pick	67cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6406…bc04backed Yes	77c	77$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.29	36	61.1%22 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	65cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No	23c	75$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.75	360	55.3%199 W · 161 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes	67c	74.08$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	88	54.5%48 W · 40 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No	42c	73.98$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.73	371	17.8%66 W · 305 L	-18.9wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1c1…9c63backed Yes	55c	72.73$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	72cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No	51c	65.5$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.96	352	58%204 W · 148 L	-4.6wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ac…40d9backed No	40c	63$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.55	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes	54c	62.57$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.79	50	36%18 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2092…a752backed No	60c	60$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed Yes	50c	59.8$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	44	52.3%23 W · 21 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcc4…f3dabacked No	35c	59.14$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.61	25	60%15 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes	57c	56.41$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.94	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	35cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No	59c	55.97$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.22	274	38.3%105 W · 169 L	-32.3wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes	54c	52.5$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.35	103	44.7%46 W · 57 L	-7.6wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fd8…d4edbacked Yes	53c	50.94$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a9…339ebacked No	24c	50$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38	24	25%6 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x82fb…bed6backed No	39c	50$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.5	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.11per pick	58cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed Yes	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6fb…58e2backed Yes	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x223f…aab7backed Yes	52c	48.94$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	53c	46$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.38	266	32.7%87 W · 179 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No	48c	43.59$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.67	146	37%54 W · 92 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x027a…d8f6backed Yes	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4f…e321backed Yes	56c	37.68$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.1	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-3.2wins	-0.23per pick	44cpaid	-71.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1953…89f6backed Yes	53c	36.22$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.27	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd73…7076backed Yes	52c	35.92$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7475…2a10backed Yes	56c	35.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	64.7%22 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	64cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No	67c	34$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.34	96	56.3%54 W · 42 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No	41c	32.53$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.15	74	50%37 W · 37 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No	46c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.2	263	55.9%147 W · 116 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1613…6bb0backed No	48c	29.32$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.25	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb92a…f51cbacked No	61c	27.91$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.88	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63f6…b9eabacked Yes	58c	25.82$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	53c	25.52$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.92	316	35.1%111 W · 205 L	-11.1wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9da9…ec6fbacked No	61c	24$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.36	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes	57c	21.8$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.45	60	43.3%26 W · 34 L	-7.0wins	-0.12per pick	55cpaid	-27%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x58ce…57c4backed No	60c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-3.1wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdf…eba6backed No	59c	21$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.61	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+54.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No	60c	20.95$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.38	107	34.6%37 W · 70 L	-4.6wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc05…9859backed Yes	58c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe02d…bcffbacked Yes	58c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.27per pick	60cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No	60c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	39	66.7%26 W · 13 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb32…e1c8backed No	58c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	57cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc23…5a3dbacked Yes	59c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x095b…8a05backed No	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.5	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-2.9wins	-0.16per pick	44cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2118…27a3backed Yes	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes	52c	19.42$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	53	37.7%20 W · 33 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?this page
Will Christopher Gygès be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
Will Gil Brial be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
Will Gilbert Tyuienon be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
Will Johanito Wamytan be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
Will Louis Mapou be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
Will Milakulo Tukumuli be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?Yes won
Will Paul Néaoutyine be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
Will Pierre Chanel Tutugoro be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
Will Sonia Backès be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
Will Virginie Ruffenach be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event