World Politics · resolved market
Will Sonia Backès be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0175a7302e183572ac6bc3fbf8d6f6500983ae3d188b8d90e450dd18f7ba641
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 14c | 633.89$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 14c | 483.39$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes | 20c | 459.72$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 23c | 233.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba8…6bcebacked No | 75c | 134.34$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 14c | 132.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f1…f437backed Yes | 27c | 126.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf65d…b385backed No | 73c | 83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 26c | 44.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 14.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sonia Backès be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?this page
- Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
- Will Christopher Gygès be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
- Will Gil Brial be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
- Will Gilbert Tyuienon be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
- Will Johanito Wamytan be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
- Will Louis Mapou be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
- Will Milakulo Tukumuli be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?Yes won
- Will Paul Néaoutyine be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
- Will Pierre Chanel Tutugoro be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
- Will Virginie Ruffenach be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.