World Politics · resolved market
Will Milakulo Tukumuli be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedab0070c2cf0996186664f2632a68309362fad803995ac47621726b05864463
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 47c | 1,290$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.26 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +16.5wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 1,200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd515…2c54backed Yes | 53c | 1,058$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 10c | 380$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked No | 10c | 343$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 31c | 326.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.26 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 64c | 324.79$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.91 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 260$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.68 | 553 | 51.2%283 W · 270 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 52c | 239.8$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.3 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 236.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 1,437 | 10.2%147 W · 1,290 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 10c | 232.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 325 | 34.8%113 W · 212 L | -12.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed No | 10c | 207.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 15c | 143.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 361 | 54.8%198 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 8c | 126.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 267 | 32.6%87 W · 180 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 10c | 107$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 190 | 45.3%86 W · 104 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6da…3699backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0169…0096backed Yes | 80c | 56.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 50c | 51.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 995 | 17.2%171 W · 824 L | -149.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 39c | 50.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 110 | 42.7%47 W · 63 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…220bbacked Yes | 61c | 46.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked No | 34c | 40.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 55c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeced…c598backed No | 67c | 33.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Milakulo Tukumuli be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?this page
- Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
- Will Christopher Gygès be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
- Will Gil Brial be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
- Will Gilbert Tyuienon be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
- Will Johanito Wamytan be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
- Will Louis Mapou be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
- Will Paul Néaoutyine be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
- Will Pierre Chanel Tutugoro be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
- Will Sonia Backès be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
- Will Virginie Ruffenach be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.