TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0655…475d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
40
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT2245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$33.33
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$40.85
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+25.7%+$18
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$26.92
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$40.85
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+49.3%+$24.63
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will elections be called before a new Prime Minister is appointed?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Will Alexandra Leitão be elected Mayor of Lisbon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$750Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+226.4%+$1,697.99
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
Will the Progressive Reform Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suriname election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,500
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$4,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,000
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$910Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+465.7%+$4,237.73
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+400%+$1,596
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$970Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$970
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+133.5%+$2,003.12
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,311Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,311
All 22 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+103.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-56%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Elon Musk tweets 35+ times Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$37.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Oct 24, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.00-3.25 in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+32.9%+$23.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+28%+$19.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arkansas vs. St. John'sbacked St. John's · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.