Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd54d0ffce432ea816e0d359cea8bad132434db1f95ec6cf2379f98002b75e1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 11c | 2,547$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.1 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes | 38c | 1,645$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.07 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 76c | 1,062$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.77 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa1…953fbacked Yes | 20c | 620$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 51c | 585.48$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.34 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e74…93bcbacked Yes | 55c | 488.86$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes | 7c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed Yes | 6c | 360.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 15c | 310.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 5c | 308.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.87 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 298.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…96d1backed Yes | 35c | 282.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…475dbacked No | 74c | 268.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 77c | 235.68$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…99d9backed No | 80c | 220$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 76c | 217.79$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a22…f352backed Yes | 29c | 210.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3f…b45bbacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa120…f28bbacked No | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 18c | 129.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 78c | 128.69$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…1a62backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82c…620abacked Yes | 23c | 109.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…462dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733f…3e9bbacked No | 78c | 83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 31c | 77.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +8.4wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 26c | 72.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 73c | 68.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb09…0812backed Yes | 27c | 65.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 65c | 25.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in October?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.