Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc05ab11d9d653f2a29310e6b6d7af2ed25f5437439ad7cd43eeadcc74f617758
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d4f…d0f6backed Yes | 21c | 1,475$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.12 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 21c | 1,215$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.68 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,185$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.96 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 24c | 997.08$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 80c | 932.48$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.35 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 21c | 918.25$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.62 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed Yes | 21c | 876.01$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.47 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 29c | 865.23$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.18 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 80c | 630$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1616…a3fabacked No | 78c | 592.73$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 22c | 581.56$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e3…a274backed Yes | 4c | 533.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a3…7739backed Yes | 20c | 503.56$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed Yes | 4c | 498.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 470.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 23c | 422.51$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 22c | 399.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 355.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x601c…d7f9backed Yes | 3c | 346.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 73c | 341.09$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf454…7eccbacked Yes | 4c | 280$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes | 24c | 249.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 241.84$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 29c | 191.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 22c | 154$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 146.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 73c | 141.43$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 72c | 139.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdad…56c7backed No | 74c | 135.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1760…3f3cbacked Yes | 15c | 132.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 28c | 127.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20f5…9495backed Yes | 35c | 125.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes | 43c | 104.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…215dbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b97…c4a3backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…d233backed No | 65c | 92.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 19c | 87.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed Yes | 20c | 79.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48d8…6514backed Yes | 16c | 76.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…7078backed Yes | 27c | 69.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 22c | 65.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68f3…776cbacked Yes | 35c | 61.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 18c | 57.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9d…afe6backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed No | 70c | 34.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 73c | 34.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…7f4fbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b8…0607backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…c3d3backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…d147backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0804…049dbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205c…f554backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…cc60backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 66c | 16.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee41…68cdbacked No | 79c | 15.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in October?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.