Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0366d1248b7414f3c0c59eb87eb2cc91ef4a5ff193c1c8513e4a07c9b46b76d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 1,887$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.84 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4221…7364backed No | 54c | 1,821$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.67 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 2c | 904.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 27c | 861.28$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.36 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e2…cab8backed No | 9c | 776.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 17c | 764.74$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.44 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 45c | 722.6$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.79 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 14c | 504.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.88 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b76…31f3backed Yes | 13c | 462.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +251.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 13c | 306.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 57c | 300$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…ee60backed No | 36c | 283.03$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 12c | 264.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.52 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes | 14c | 210$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fb…e35fbacked No | 69c | 204.09$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…258cbacked No | 64c | 197.31$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 43c | 119.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 113.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…a0c0backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733f…3e9bbacked No | 79c | 57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…2123backed Yes | 44c | 44.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…12a9backed No | 62c | 40.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…dc06backed Yes | 55c | 36.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…bd47backed Yes | 79c | 34.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…e5c6backed Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in October?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.