TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe9fb…e35f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
76
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: AI, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category AI at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$106
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$19.7
Yoon arrested by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$235.75
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.23
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$14.48
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Trudeau out before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST+43.6%+$6.54
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+44.9%+$13.48
Trudeau resigns by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+47.1%+$14.12
Kemi Badenoch next Conservative party leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2024, EDT+56.3%+$28.13
Will Guilherme Boulos win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$17.91
Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2024, EDT+53.8%+$32.31
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2024, EDT+25%+$5
Will FPÖ win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2024, EDT+56.3%+$28.13
All 16 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1662.5%10 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.4%+$38.36
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+65.5%+$98.19
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+55.8%+$11.16
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+31.5%+$25.22
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$23.33
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$21.27
US government shutdown by October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+46.9%+$37.52
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$13.33
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$69.52
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Trump renames Gulf of Mexico to "Gulf of America" in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+33.3%+$6.67
Another Trump Cabinet nominee withdrawn before inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+37.6%+$7.51
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$250
All 16 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2025, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$7.78
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+62.3%+$18.7
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$15
Another Iran strike on Israel in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+26.6%+$9.3
Israel military response against Iran in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT+37.2%+$11.16
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+48.7%+$36.8
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-79.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+60.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+44.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2024, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+68.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Bucks vs. Pelicansbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$6.13
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-09-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$8.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Sep 8, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2024, EDT+42.9%+$42.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT+41.2%+$214.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+37%+$110.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$7.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+32.1%+$12.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$432Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$121.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Oct 24, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.