TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Guilherme Boulos win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$771,893
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$443,355

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $771,893 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd155…f311backed Yes3c140,811$4,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,083.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd80…f516backed Yes15c65,020$9,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,741.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9962…aab6backed Yes3c48,594$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ece…c040backed Yes18c24,896$4,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,564.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes13c23,017$3,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,059.56038.3%23 W · 37 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcda9…a485backed Yes17c21,538$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,600.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8343…c18fbacked Yes12c20,679$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d07…c0ccbacked Yes21c18,493$3,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,969.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes17c18,429$3,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,054.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes31c18,063$5,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,602.1540%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf638…637ebacked Yes14c15,487$2,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d3…3d49backed Yes16c12,339$2,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,004.78333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes13c12,260$1,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,594.14012.5%5 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes26c11,074$2,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,897.7943243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes17c8,149$1,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,366.977345.2%33 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x540d…122bbacked No80c8,123$6,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,648.973100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8eab…7badbacked Yes24c7,631$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,796.3530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8db4…f634backed Yes12c7,265$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7223…192ebacked Yes9c7,200$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes27c5,788$1,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,583.9510037%37 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8093…7febbacked Yes22c4,605$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.6730%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26f6…4e20backed Yes36c4,150$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed No75c3,906$2,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.421080%8 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x48da…6d88backed Yes26c3,858$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4930…d78dbacked No77c3,798$2,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-34.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes15c3,777$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.279721.6%21 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes20c3,724$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.57425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-67.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e60…b440backed Yes9c3,634$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.521315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-43.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe515…9458backed Yes14c3,510$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.38333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-49.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes12c3,463$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.1638023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e5a…563dbacked Yes4c3,420$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.44520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-64.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fca…6466backed Yes13c2,962$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.66742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c2,742$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.281,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b91…297bbacked Yes4c2,702$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd01b…e606backed Yes12c2,397$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.66333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47f0…17c9backed Yes16c2,379$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x757a…0e81backed Yes15c2,305$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes2c2,100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes17c2,008$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3388337.3%31 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+104%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfcc…797dbacked Yes21c2,000$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.9830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes18c1,990$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.61618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-68.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes18c1,925$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.142955.2%16 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3746…ce9ebacked Yes4c1,696$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5777…618bbacked Yes3c1,520$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2e2…0677backed Yes3c1,427$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707b…899fbacked Yes15c1,362$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.0730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30bc…c428backed Yes17c1,300$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2181758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad93…5ecdbacked Yes13c1,226$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes15c1,224$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.15648.2%27 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd621…db72backed Yes4c1,211$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfa6…f4b0backed Yes5c1,204$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.381931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+84.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No78c1,178$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.0257636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes25c1,144$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.51353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+35.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4a8…3783backed Yes19c1,143$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.5140%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3651…a0b0backed Yes13c1,141$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf655…f5debacked Yes4c1,127$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb68c…2addbacked Yes11c1,100$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+44.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Yes9c1,007$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x859e…6e02backed Yes26c947.52$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb9…1a6fbacked Yes20c901.5$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-46.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5981…8307backed Yes35c861.34$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…27d5backed Yes11c853.35$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5c4…8c56backed Yes26c846.05$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.84520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-63.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x374f…b036backed Yes6c844.63$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf72c…f818backed Yes2c812.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes20c786.86$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.477834.6%27 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e2b…451dbacked Yes8c777.45$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27eb…d433backed No69c760$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x123c…4975backed Yes2c729.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf155…2e19backed Yes25c705.75$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.44837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+175.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x542a…0312backed Yes25c669.97$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.73616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed No80c660.97$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.52339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6c…fb04backed Yes5c614.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c2b…295ebacked Yes19c600$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid+197.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb080…dea6backed Yes15c559.37$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.08520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-72.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb907…0e14backed Yes18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad1c…78cfbacked No74c547.34$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.31250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x087a…eae9backed No79c533.17$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b4…3974backed Yes14c516.67$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3573…b6f9backed Yes15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a24…bd4ebacked No80c494.21$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4595…d369backed Yes4c491.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4998…2383backed Yes4c488.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a9c…33bfbacked Yes15c481.83$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe543…8973backed No76c478.97$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f2…2798backed Yes12c475$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5553…cc5abacked Yes29c474$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb42b…0108backed Yes2c472.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9a3…9a0ebacked Yes7c420.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49b8…762dbacked Yes25c420$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-59.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b29…1227backed Yes22c403.66$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2420…ce7fbacked Yes16c400$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde8…74e7backed Yes9c388.89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33f1…14eebacked Yes3c381.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x834f…2342backed Yes10c371.43$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc199…1a40backed Yes6c366.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82a4…cdb7backed No67c321.89$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-75.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xffea…afc9backed Yes19c321.32$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes17c317.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.063336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb139…f511backed Yes19c304.38$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.36333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.