World Politics · resolved market
Will Guilherme Boulos win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c414c75dd6ec63e94350ba8c5a4db077912b59d86cb1676728b54b23360418e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $771,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $443,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $771,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd155…f311backed Yes | 3c | 140,811$4,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,083.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd80…f516backed Yes | 15c | 65,020$9,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,741.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9962…aab6backed Yes | 3c | 48,594$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ece…c040backed Yes | 18c | 24,896$4,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,564.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 13c | 23,017$3,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,059.5 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcda9…a485backed Yes | 17c | 21,538$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8343…c18fbacked Yes | 12c | 20,679$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…c0ccbacked Yes | 21c | 18,493$3,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,969.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes | 17c | 18,429$3,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,054.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 31c | 18,063$5,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,602.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…637ebacked Yes | 14c | 15,487$2,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…3d49backed Yes | 16c | 12,339$2,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,004.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 13c | 12,260$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594.1 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 26c | 11,074$2,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,897.79 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 17c | 8,149$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.97 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…122bbacked No | 80c | 8,123$6,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…7badbacked Yes | 24c | 7,631$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,796.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…f634backed Yes | 12c | 7,265$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7223…192ebacked Yes | 9c | 7,200$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 27c | 5,788$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,583.95 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8093…7febbacked Yes | 22c | 4,605$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26f6…4e20backed Yes | 36c | 4,150$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed No | 75c | 3,906$2,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.42 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…6d88backed Yes | 26c | 3,858$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…d78dbacked No | 77c | 3,798$2,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 15c | 3,777$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.27 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes | 20c | 3,724$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 9c | 3,634$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.52 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe515…9458backed Yes | 14c | 3,510$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 3,463$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.16 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5a…563dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,420$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…6466backed Yes | 13c | 2,962$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 2,742$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.28 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b91…297bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,702$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01b…e606backed Yes | 12c | 2,397$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f0…17c9backed Yes | 16c | 2,379$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x757a…0e81backed Yes | 15c | 2,305$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 2,100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 17c | 2,008$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…797dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,000$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,990$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.6 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 18c | 1,925$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.14 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…ce9ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,696$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…618bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,520$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e2…0677backed Yes | 3c | 1,427$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…899fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,362$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…c428backed Yes | 17c | 1,300$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad93…5ecdbacked Yes | 13c | 1,226$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 15c | 1,224$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.1 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…db72backed Yes | 4c | 1,211$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa6…f4b0backed Yes | 5c | 1,204$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 1,178$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.02 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 25c | 1,144$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a8…3783backed Yes | 19c | 1,143$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3651…a0b0backed Yes | 13c | 1,141$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…f5debacked Yes | 4c | 1,127$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…2addbacked Yes | 11c | 1,100$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 9c | 1,007$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859e…6e02backed Yes | 26c | 947.52$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb9…1a6fbacked Yes | 20c | 901.5$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…8307backed Yes | 35c | 861.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…27d5backed Yes | 11c | 853.35$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c4…8c56backed Yes | 26c | 846.05$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374f…b036backed Yes | 6c | 844.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72c…f818backed Yes | 2c | 812.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 20c | 786.86$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.47 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2b…451dbacked Yes | 8c | 777.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27eb…d433backed No | 69c | 760$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x123c…4975backed Yes | 2c | 729.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…2e19backed Yes | 25c | 705.75$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +175.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…0312backed Yes | 25c | 669.97$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 80c | 660.97$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…fb04backed Yes | 5c | 614.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2b…295ebacked Yes | 19c | 600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +197.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…dea6backed Yes | 15c | 559.37$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb907…0e14backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad1c…78cfbacked No | 74c | 547.34$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…eae9backed No | 79c | 533.17$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b4…3974backed Yes | 14c | 516.67$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…b6f9backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a24…bd4ebacked No | 80c | 494.21$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4595…d369backed Yes | 4c | 491.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4998…2383backed Yes | 4c | 488.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9c…33bfbacked Yes | 15c | 481.83$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe543…8973backed No | 76c | 478.97$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f2…2798backed Yes | 12c | 475$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5553…cc5abacked Yes | 29c | 474$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42b…0108backed Yes | 2c | 472.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a3…9a0ebacked Yes | 7c | 420.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 25c | 420$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…1227backed Yes | 22c | 403.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2420…ce7fbacked Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde8…74e7backed Yes | 9c | 388.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f1…14eebacked Yes | 3c | 381.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x834f…2342backed Yes | 10c | 371.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc199…1a40backed Yes | 6c | 366.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a4…cdb7backed No | 67c | 321.89$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…afc9backed Yes | 19c | 321.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 17c | 317.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…f511backed Yes | 19c | 304.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Guilherme Boulos win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?this page
- Will José Luiz Datena win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
- Will Marina Helena win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
- Will Pablo Marçal win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
- Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Tabata Amaral win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
- Will another candidate win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.