World Politics · resolved market
Will José Luiz Datena win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7f3e4ee9cb7cc36843b0bb41117edb5fe02e8353b0bf3805e84d9177d23443d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,340,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,340,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6599…6c0fbacked Yes | 0c | 77,732$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca9…7bb3backed Yes | 0c | 77,732$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb03…a2adbacked Yes | 0c | 77,732$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2477…1c02backed Yes | 0c | 77,732$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad74…fc91backed Yes | 0c | 77,732$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae25…918fbacked Yes | 0c | 77,732$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…8998backed Yes | 0c | 77,732$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…96d6backed Yes | 0c | 77,732$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…ec7dbacked Yes | 0c | 77,732$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…07c5backed Yes | 0c | 77,732$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb66d…aae0backed Yes | 0c | 77,732$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf50a…a74cbacked Yes | 0c | 77,732$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd2…6bcabacked Yes | 0c | 77,732$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…08cfbacked Yes | 0c | 77,732$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…efd6backed Yes | 0c | 77,732$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc1…d8cdbacked Yes | 0c | 77,732$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…c096backed Yes | 0c | 77,732$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d39…ae24backed Yes | 0c | 63,269$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 0c | 60,000$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1598…04fbbacked Yes | 0c | 58,299$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x667b…292ebacked Yes | 0c | 58,299$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…b238backed Yes | 0c | 58,299$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…11cebacked Yes | 0c | 54,224$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Yes | 0c | 49,999$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 31,969$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…0ab3backed Yes | 0c | 15,274$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 0c | 14,271$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,090$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaf…f155backed Yes | 0c | 9,070$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…02dfbacked Yes | 0c | 9,070$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9080…cfcebacked Yes | 0c | 9,070$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1132…57fabacked Yes | 0c | 9,070$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…455cbacked Yes | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa675…d6b2backed Yes | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb62e…5987backed Yes | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcf…6fcdbacked Yes | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf88d…7cefbacked Yes | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…d588backed Yes | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf399…e6cbbacked Yes | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d8…27f8backed Yes | 0c | 8,950$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd424…1d03backed Yes | 0c | 8,950$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1b…d0edbacked Yes | 0c | 8,950$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5975…8343backed Yes | 0c | 8,950$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…a227backed Yes | 0c | 8,950$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7733…7540backed Yes | 0c | 8,950$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3932…6820backed Yes | 0c | 8,900$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53b1…75c7backed Yes | 0c | 8,900$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c38…5306backed Yes | 0c | 8,900$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a1…b0a8backed Yes | 0c | 8,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd857…f17bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,280$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e18…e994backed Yes | 0c | 7,701$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c43…d381backed Yes | 0c | 7,664$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa6…f4b0backed Yes | 0c | 7,142$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…6de6backed Yes | 0c | 6,382$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccb…25dfbacked Yes | 0c | 6,260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…4ae6backed Yes | 0c | 6,260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…b2d7backed Yes | 0c | 6,260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…bbb5backed Yes | 0c | 6,260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…1013backed Yes | 0c | 6,260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca9…3d6fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…e9e6backed Yes | 0c | 6,260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…4283backed Yes | 0c | 6,260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d4…2889backed Yes | 0c | 6,260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2759backed Yes | 0c | 5,400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…febfbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa40…d0c7backed Yes | 0c | 4,762$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf87…6ad7backed Yes | 0c | 4,700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 0c | 3,675$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 0c | 3,664$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 0c | 2,345$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will José Luiz Datena win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?this page
- Will Guilherme Boulos win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
- Will Marina Helena win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
- Will Pablo Marçal win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
- Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Tabata Amaral win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
- Will another candidate win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.