World Politics · resolved market
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5a233c7358326318cea1f73e8dba6500abd556f65cce4e85d09afe07374dfe8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $510,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $476,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $510,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 264 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes | 20c | 40,836$8,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,004.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f6…4e20backed Yes | 31c | 39,652$12,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,289.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8343…c18fbacked Yes | 37c | 30,245$11,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,121.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…9c35backed Yes | 33c | 29,364$9,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,645.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…7badbacked Yes | 24c | 26,404$6,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,463.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…0736backed Yes | 24c | 24,128$5,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,761.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe37…6a65backed Yes | 27c | 19,074$5,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,110.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 73c | 15,722$11,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,186.28 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd80…f516backed No | 69c | 14,159$9,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,390.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…5396backed Yes | 34c | 13,092$4,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,461.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 36c | 13,080$4,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,694 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…3d49backed Yes | 44c | 11,700$5,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,104 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0a…23dbbacked Yes | 21c | 10,330$2,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,218.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…122bbacked No | 63c | 10,307$6,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,785.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82c…91dbbacked Yes | 47c | 8,021$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…c955backed Yes | 21c | 7,922$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5564…16c8backed Yes | 30c | 7,849$2,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,341.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…c428backed Yes | 26c | 7,387$1,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,894 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25d7…65d8backed Yes | 24c | 7,198$1,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 24c | 6,624$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.44 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…0312backed Yes | 27c | 5,603$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde2…202dbacked Yes | 20c | 5,134$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4d…6b32backed Yes | 49c | 5,061$2,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,468.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…f634backed Yes | 21c | 4,942$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 69c | 4,885$3,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.27 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a52…d270backed Yes | 21c | 4,580$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…03edbacked No | 70c | 4,539$3,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…0b9bbacked Yes | 24c | 4,233$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed No | 70c | 3,896$2,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.42 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…f8c7backed Yes | 24c | 3,765$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…e74ebacked No | 74c | 3,749$2,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f88…f9aabacked Yes | 29c | 3,627$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429d…71b0backed Yes | 31c | 3,234$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 72c | 2,890$2,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.67 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 70c | 2,750$1,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.46 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x282a…76d6backed Yes | 35c | 2,629$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf698…c74bbacked Yes | 33c | 2,556$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 27c | 2,371$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.39 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba48…59e9backed Yes | 46c | 2,314$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8c…15debacked Yes | 22c | 2,298$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…d78dbacked Yes | 36c | 2,293$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad1c…78cfbacked Yes | 33c | 2,278$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ea…a29cbacked Yes | 23c | 2,261$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a8…3783backed Yes | 12c | 2,175$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…cdd3backed Yes | 45c | 2,173$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3c…4b3cbacked No | 69c | 2,099$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…6a91backed Yes | 44c | 2,031$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba6…c060backed No | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 1,983$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.32 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…797dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,905$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…8813backed Yes | 24c | 1,895$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bd…ba05backed Yes | 36c | 1,891$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea2…7098backed Yes | 36c | 1,662$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81de…2dccbacked Yes | 41c | 1,553$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b0…5187backed Yes | 35c | 1,545$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fde…327ebacked No | 55c | 1,536$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5a…3161backed No | 76c | 1,475$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…e5a4backed No | 74c | 1,457$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…4787backed No | 68c | 1,450$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dff…0a65backed Yes | 26c | 1,373$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…18b6backed Yes | 47c | 1,370$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 76c | 1,317$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.24 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…dd7abacked Yes | 26c | 1,245$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a64…951cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,224$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 1,198$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.33 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…6466backed No | 78c | 1,166$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8093…7febbacked Yes | 32c | 1,160$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e7…7da3backed Yes | 30c | 1,105$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b6…dac5backed Yes | 35c | 1,059$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…eea0backed Yes | 33c | 1,049$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 77c | 1,047$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.4 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,035$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…c0ccbacked Yes | 25c | 1,008$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…2e19backed Yes | 31c | 937.48$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +175.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…eae9backed Yes | 31c | 933.86$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce6…4f1dbacked Yes | 22c | 908$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…9712backed Yes | 45c | 890.77$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe391…e00fbacked Yes | 23c | 870$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…b23dbacked Yes | 22c | 846.44$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…33ebbacked Yes | 21c | 842.86$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0874…a27ebacked Yes | 21c | 837.37$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…2d5abacked Yes | 30c | 832.47$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74e…dd9abacked No | 80c | 823.98$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…de93backed Yes | 22c | 811.46$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +186.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…751bbacked Yes | 29c | 800$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 67c | 794.37$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.14 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac33…5bb6backed Yes | 25c | 785.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb396…0183backed Yes | 26c | 780.11$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d9…e0c6backed Yes | 26c | 753$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2420…ce7fbacked No | 77c | 728.82$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c4…8c56backed Yes | 28c | 717.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 23c | 710.04$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.85 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea13…8fc0backed Yes | 25c | 694.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…4f61backed Yes | 21c | 682.33$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…bbb1backed Yes | 22c | 667.65$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222d…ff8bbacked Yes | 29c | 637.03$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…bde9backed Yes | 23c | 634.42$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…cf3fbacked Yes | 30c | 602.29$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9c…33bfbacked Yes | 21c | 599.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pablo Marçal win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?this page
- Will Guilherme Boulos win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
- Will José Luiz Datena win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
- Will Marina Helena win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
- Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Tabata Amaral win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
- Will another candidate win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.