TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will another candidate win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,001,687
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$271,606

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,001,687 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf58a…e524backed Yes0c595,811$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd33d…45c5backed Yes0c549,979$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c8…0ccfbacked Yes0c549,979$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eff…a545backed Yes0c549,979$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2698…7b58backed Yes0c549,979$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75a3…4f8cbacked Yes0c549,979$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x374d…fe3bbacked Yes0c549,979$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb493…223abacked Yes0c549,979$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8f3…3767backed Yes0c549,979$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…2334backed Yes0c549,979$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ed…a16cbacked Yes0c547,147$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f0d…29b8backed Yes0c547,147$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5d6…7b8fbacked Yes0c504,147$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d2…2d88backed Yes0c504,147$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5d…dc48backed Yes0c272,790$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd045…c933backed Yes0c272,790$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf02…13efbacked Yes0c182,968$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f2d…2f04backed Yes0c181,860$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0433…83f6backed Yes0c181,860$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1568…6bacbacked Yes0c181,860$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2acd…1dfabacked Yes0c181,860$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c152,969$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.973614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90a0…e145backed Yes0c152,114$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ad…bfb8backed Yes0c152,114$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa938…4cacbacked Yes0c152,114$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79c3…4e1bbacked Yes0c152,114$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76c…6444backed Yes0c152,114$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cd7…bb93backed Yes0c152,114$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf176…6fcfbacked Yes0c152,114$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9040…4657backed Yes0c151,550$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e31…7221backed Yes0c151,550$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd66d…a6aebacked Yes0c137,495$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300c…d767backed Yes0c122,108$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x227d…feafbacked Yes0c122,108$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c7…8bf7backed Yes0c122,094$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40d…84a5backed Yes0c122,094$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0068…1218backed Yes0c121,691$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4c…d812backed Yes0c121,614$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1257…b5f2backed Yes0c121,610$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b72…01c7backed Yes0c121,600$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dd4…332fbacked Yes0c121,240$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a4a…3d97backed Yes0c121,240$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b34…0a93backed Yes0c121,240$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95f2…675abacked Yes0c121,240$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d9…e479backed Yes0c101,418$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb081…7358backed Yes0c97,449$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6180…b73ebacked Yes0c97,449$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c5…5bb8backed Yes0c93,000$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f8…df4ebacked Yes0c93,000$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaa2…2cdfbacked Yes0c93,000$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b0…f9dcbacked Yes0c93,000$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbda6…bf8dbacked Yes0c92,660$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7669…1459backed Yes0c92,649$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0ac…ab24backed Yes0c92,630$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7484…a41bbacked Yes0c92,559$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x058f…a3babacked Yes0c92,552$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa771…82b2backed Yes0c92,542$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x638a…edc6backed Yes0c92,540$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd26a…0963backed Yes0c92,520$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd49a…cf66backed Yes0c89,837$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6d1…7c31backed Yes0c80,732$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cf…f1c6backed Yes0c79,732$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd652…4b53backed Yes0c79,731$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50cd…3477backed Yes0c79,731$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e57…6151backed Yes0c70,872$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7b8…35c6backed Yes0c63,653$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac9…d6cdbacked Yes0c63,653$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7756…28e2backed Yes0c63,100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x203e…561abacked Yes0c62,040$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee99…80e6backed Yes0c62,013$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4a7…fd07backed Yes0c62,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec85…1fe4backed Yes0c62,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25f8…f743backed Yes0c62,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb381…3f3ebacked Yes0c62,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb63…2632backed Yes0c62,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x839b…94e3backed Yes0c62,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d1d…319ebacked Yes0c62,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x264a…6b67backed Yes0c62,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa224…cce2backed Yes0c62,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca5…20b4backed Yes0c61,910$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11eb…01eabacked Yes0c61,910$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x235d…a49dbacked Yes0c61,910$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x794d…aea7backed Yes0c61,910$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b2b…ad8ebacked Yes0c61,899$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x955c…902abacked Yes0c61,895$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3b…02e7backed Yes0c61,893$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadb9…a590backed Yes0c61,890$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dea…5a4ebacked Yes0c61,845$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a77…a099backed Yes0c61,838$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb486…0c58backed Yes0c61,788$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c56…2683backed Yes0c61,765$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c6a…73e0backed Yes0c61,760$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x358e…8f7fbacked Yes0c61,754$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…e7e5backed Yes0c61,750$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80c8…e301backed Yes0c61,749$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x256c…ae37backed Yes0c61,746$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbc9…2dbdbacked Yes0c61,745$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd41a…0348backed Yes0c61,720$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd7f…1834backed Yes0c61,706$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x712e…7118backed Yes0c61,700$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.