TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$732,128
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,056,557

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $732,128 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 257 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa84b…5055backed No64c23,599$15,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,143.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes60c22,620$13,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,028.7743243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x540d…122bbacked Yes52c18,324$9,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,726.353100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9366…1f60backed Yes39c9,096$3,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,590.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+159.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe47b…1507backed Yes42c8,290$3,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,836.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+140%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbbc…ed7cbacked No11c6,238$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes52c6,198$3,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,982.927345.2%33 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8093…7febbacked No56c6,171$3,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,479.7630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b0a…23dbbacked No45c5,927$2,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,663.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes41c5,881$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,440.5710037%37 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…7badbacked No58c4,400$2,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,544.9730%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4113…03edbacked Yes50c4,125$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,077.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+71.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30bc…c428backed No60c3,905$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,360.161758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No9c3,728$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.631,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdec2…1c46backed No12c3,634$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbfcc…797dbacked No46c3,332$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.4830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a5e…9c35backed No60c3,177$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,905.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes54c3,012$1,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,382.68921.3%19 W · 70 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+105.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Yes74c2,619$1,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.447451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd44…6565backed Yes48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc74e…dd9abacked No45c1,955$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db8…b5b0backed Yes66c1,882$1,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0e3…c760backed No50c1,882$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db4…f634backed No13c1,811$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed No58c1,708$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.072339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc997…8ac6backed Yes60c1,664$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48da…6d88backed Yes73c1,635$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.98540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes59c1,630$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.639721.6%21 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f59…1c11backed Yes62c1,306$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes63c1,240$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.651,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d3…3d49backed Yes36c1,121$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.94333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes50c1,103$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.491353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+35.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes43c1,086$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.81728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick17cpaid+480.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x429d…71b0backed Yes72c1,071$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.56250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81de…2dccbacked Yes50c1,052$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d7a…ecdebacked No51c1,014$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…6be5backed Yes45c1,002$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…b23dbacked No43c984.41$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05b6…dac5backed No48c932.98$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x707b…899fbacked No50c901.06$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.3830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No40c886.18$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.9257636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea9e…10fabacked Yes60c833.33$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ee…ae97backed Yes45c823.41$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b29…1227backed Yes44c805.63$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.35540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ba2…18a5backed No51c796.94$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d07…c0ccbacked Yes64c750$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes47c744.99$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.084055%22 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes59c721.78$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.5216744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d55…5b73backed Yes58c705.98$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6116…f247backed No39c691.77$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.551118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6f…1035backed No3c680$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4a8…3783backed No44c611.23$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.940%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd13…e6f1backed No2c592.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.19633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+130.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b30…10b7backed No15c585.15$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47dc…eec9backed Yes54c581.47$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.38742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb0…eea0backed Yes74c566.19$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.77650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-18.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x06aa…c31dbacked No4c535.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19bb…6609backed No43c535$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa63a…542fbacked Yes57c535$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc429…700fbacked Yes70c521.81$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.544100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecb9…1a6fbacked Yes62c501.23$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-46.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf1…b3afbacked No52c480.19$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.7922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2420…ce7fbacked Yes54c467.98$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.43666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2574…9189backed Yes48c433.2$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa01c…6b40backed No3c419.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb626…5bb1backed No55c417.2$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefdf…97edbacked Yes61c385.44$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.043100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e60…b440backed No16c385$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.251315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-43.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c2b…295ebacked No52c384.52$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.95616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid+197.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2219…08b5backed Yes61c381.98$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d7a…bcfdbacked Yes45c381.21$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd94…bd7ebacked Yes60c350$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1401100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf57e…ffe5backed Yes60c348.97$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8153…4d71backed Yes57c348.23$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99aa…0139backed No44c340.91$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82a4…cdb7backed No38c334.26$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.02616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-75.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3651…a0b0backed Yes45c320$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8c…15debacked Yes65c318.85$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.45650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc533…2669backed Yes41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe11b…7256backed Yes47c299.4$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes46c296.2$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.95683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick47cpaid+70.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x790c…033cbacked Yes74c283.18$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.533860.5%23 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa6…db6abacked No52c280$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c98…eef4backed Yes61c258.1$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.06862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes58c258$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3638023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc199…1a40backed Yes40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes51c244.13$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.625648.2%27 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b36…6a68backed Yes76c227.25$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa56a…4f19backed Yes49c210.66$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10c1…f9c4backed No17c210.28$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…6e17backed Yes50c203.89$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e5a…563dbacked No17c202.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.18520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-64.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd74d…85e9backed No42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844040%16 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7cc…4952backed Yes56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+63%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f5a…3161backed Yes58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62cc…9d0fbacked No23c199.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.991040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No22c199$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.597834.6%27 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f8b…0159backed Yes33c198.84$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.56560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43ed…604fbacked No38c195$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.55616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.