World Politics · resolved market
Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fc36bb7895236ab0dc8424663d986e79cfd64068258da62e631c7bc9d4c4955
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $732,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,056,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $732,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 257 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa84b…5055backed No | 64c | 23,599$15,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,143.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 60c | 22,620$13,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,028.77 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…122bbacked Yes | 52c | 18,324$9,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,726.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9366…1f60backed Yes | 39c | 9,096$3,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,590.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1507backed Yes | 42c | 8,290$3,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,836.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…ed7cbacked No | 11c | 6,238$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 52c | 6,198$3,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,982.92 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8093…7febbacked No | 56c | 6,171$3,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,479.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0a…23dbbacked No | 45c | 5,927$2,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,663.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 41c | 5,881$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,440.57 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…7badbacked No | 58c | 4,400$2,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,544.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…03edbacked Yes | 50c | 4,125$2,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,077.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…c428backed No | 60c | 3,905$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,360.16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 3,728$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.63 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…1c46backed No | 12c | 3,634$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…797dbacked No | 46c | 3,332$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…9c35backed No | 60c | 3,177$1,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,905.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 54c | 3,012$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.6 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 74c | 2,619$1,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.44 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…6565backed Yes | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74e…dd9abacked No | 45c | 1,955$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db8…b5b0backed Yes | 66c | 1,882$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…c760backed No | 50c | 1,882$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…f634backed No | 13c | 1,811$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 58c | 1,708$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.07 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc997…8ac6backed Yes | 60c | 1,664$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…6d88backed Yes | 73c | 1,635$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 59c | 1,630$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.63 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f59…1c11backed Yes | 62c | 1,306$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 1,240$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.65 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…3d49backed Yes | 36c | 1,121$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 50c | 1,103$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.49 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 43c | 1,086$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +480.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429d…71b0backed Yes | 72c | 1,071$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81de…2dccbacked Yes | 50c | 1,052$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…ecdebacked No | 51c | 1,014$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…6be5backed Yes | 45c | 1,002$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…b23dbacked No | 43c | 984.41$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b6…dac5backed No | 48c | 932.98$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…899fbacked No | 50c | 901.06$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 40c | 886.18$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.92 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…10fabacked Yes | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ee…ae97backed Yes | 45c | 823.41$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…1227backed Yes | 44c | 805.63$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…18a5backed No | 51c | 796.94$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…c0ccbacked Yes | 64c | 750$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 47c | 744.99$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.08 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 59c | 721.78$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.52 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…5b73backed Yes | 58c | 705.98$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 39c | 691.77$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.55 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6f…1035backed No | 3c | 680$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a8…3783backed No | 44c | 611.23$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed No | 2c | 592.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…10b7backed No | 15c | 585.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 54c | 581.47$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…eea0backed Yes | 74c | 566.19$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06aa…c31dbacked No | 4c | 535.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19bb…6609backed No | 43c | 535$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa63a…542fbacked Yes | 57c | 535$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc429…700fbacked Yes | 70c | 521.81$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.54 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb9…1a6fbacked Yes | 62c | 501.23$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf1…b3afbacked No | 52c | 480.19$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2420…ce7fbacked Yes | 54c | 467.98$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2574…9189backed Yes | 48c | 433.2$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa01c…6b40backed No | 3c | 419.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…5bb1backed No | 55c | 417.2$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdf…97edbacked Yes | 61c | 385.44$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed No | 16c | 385$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2b…295ebacked No | 52c | 384.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +197.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2219…08b5backed Yes | 61c | 381.98$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7a…bcfdbacked Yes | 45c | 381.21$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…bd7ebacked Yes | 60c | 350$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…ffe5backed Yes | 60c | 348.97$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8153…4d71backed Yes | 57c | 348.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99aa…0139backed No | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a4…cdb7backed No | 38c | 334.26$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3651…a0b0backed Yes | 45c | 320$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8c…15debacked Yes | 65c | 318.85$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc533…2669backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11b…7256backed Yes | 47c | 299.4$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes | 46c | 296.2$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.95 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…033cbacked Yes | 74c | 283.18$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…db6abacked No | 52c | 280$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…eef4backed Yes | 61c | 258.1$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 58c | 258$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc199…1a40backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 51c | 244.13$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.62 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b36…6a68backed Yes | 76c | 227.25$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa56a…4f19backed Yes | 49c | 210.66$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10c1…f9c4backed No | 17c | 210.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…6e17backed Yes | 50c | 203.89$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5a…563dbacked No | 17c | 202.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +63%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5a…3161backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…9d0fbacked No | 23c | 199.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 22c | 199$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed Yes | 33c | 198.84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…604fbacked No | 38c | 195$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?this page
- Will Guilherme Boulos win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
- Will José Luiz Datena win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
- Will Marina Helena win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
- Will Pablo Marçal win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
- Will Tabata Amaral win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
- Will another candidate win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.