TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x79ee…ae97

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
53
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: World Politics, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 52 out of 100; worst NBA at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT4837.5%18 W · 30 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 48 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$598Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$597.93
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$11.53
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$134
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2024, EST+100%+$122.39
Thunder vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2024, EST-100%-$12.74
Lakers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2024, EST-100%-$150
Knicks vs. Mavericksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2024, EST-100%-$200
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST-100%-$56
Knicks vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2024, EST-100%-$200
Clippers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST-100%-$200
Nuggets vs. Lakersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST+170.3%+$340.54
Mavericks vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST-100%-$400
Magic vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$300
Magic vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST+104.1%+$51.34
76ers vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST+177.2%+$356.14
Nuggets vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2024, EST-100%-$200
Cavaliers vs. Celticsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$48.65
Warriors vs. Clippersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$200
Rockets vs. Bucksbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$200
Nuggets vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST+47.9%+$95.75
Bucks vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+132.6%+$265.12
76ers vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+88.7%+$177.36
Mavericks vs. Jazzbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$200
Pistons vs. Bucksbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$200
Mavericks vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2024, EST+81.8%+$163.64
Showing 25 of 48 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 27, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$368Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2024, EDT+123.8%+$455.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+61.3%+$16.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+57%+$114.06
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.