TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$817,457
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$900,893

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $817,457 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 418 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes7c103,729$7,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,768.812015%3 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No44c45,321$19,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,461.653941%16 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x854d…deb0backed Yes55c27,913$15,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,352.111747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+44.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed No69c23,774$16,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,261.782050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5310…a500backed Yes38c20,408$7,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,798.59560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes10c17,288$1,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,802.823141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes19c14,118$2,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,684.144214.3%6 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No77c11,901$9,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,718.778220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe64f…44a5backed Yes63c11,863$7,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,448.621225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes17c10,898$1,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,852.065747.4%27 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x054b…8477backed Yes45c10,531$4,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,749.993324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6116…f247backed Yes55c10,050$5,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,528.51315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4f5…1d41backed Yes15c9,925$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,483.2119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-80.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e4…1009backed Yes20c9,751$1,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,908.291136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked Yes12c8,738$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed No68c8,099$5,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,603.494030%12 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes48c7,378$3,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,512.94837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No64c7,281$4,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,626.073644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No43c7,268$3,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,167.094257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes9c7,170$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.984318.6%8 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8081…6d62backed No63c6,991$4,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,558.532552%13 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No68c6,945$4,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,246.388749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5335…0b0fbacked Yes4c5,981$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.612516%4 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-61.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd053…f7c0backed Yes50c5,350$2,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,690.072927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e9f…aa81backed Yes57c5,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8502326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes63c4,963$3,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,139.926137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47bc…c043backed Yes15c4,428$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.28933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No52c4,354$2,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,105.527247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2259…fd08backed Yes47c4,315$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,020333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+149.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes18c3,901$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.4126423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8764…6d8fbacked Yes36c3,826$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,368.42425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes13c3,235$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.298951.7%46 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65fb…92cabacked Yes8c2,954$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.562729.6%8 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed No79c2,912$2,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.2812744.9%57 W · 70 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+91.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd1ec…29cdbacked No74c2,714$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.652528%7 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef45…666fbacked Yes40c2,519$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.732733.3%9 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+77.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd874…a314backed No46c2,516$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.11060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No48c2,484$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.2837740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22aa…c76bbacked Yes23c2,414$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9c8…c493backed No74c2,390$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.281030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+72.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9e…0a21backed Yes6c2,386$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.47633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-46.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6691…17cfbacked No17c2,371$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.044100%4 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+352.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes2c2,350$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374912.2%6 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick13cpaid-48.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes42c2,324$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.247337%27 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x054b…2339backed No69c2,268$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.672445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b0d…59bdbacked Yes25c2,182$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.1440%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1714…0986backed Yes23c2,140$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.951010%1 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-83.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes44c2,093$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.175836.2%21 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+73%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed No53c2,000$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x84c6…0c95backed Yes32c1,939$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.021921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf296…9839backed No35c1,936$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,248.93333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8048…53c9backed No66c1,923$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes23c1,772$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.854742.6%20 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x095f…765dbacked Yes61c1,769$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,07820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes29c1,747$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.4877636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a1f…9cdebacked Yes60c1,683$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.4680%0 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x90f6…b4afbacked Yes9c1,674$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.58633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-56.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes29c1,562$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.316036.7%22 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x151c…a723backed No39c1,538$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cc6…9adbbacked Yes62c1,530$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0a9…8551backed No78c1,500$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3301100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca91…d2cabacked Yes22c1,500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb64c…cca4backed No78c1,500$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3301100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc84a…b973backed Yes24c1,500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58d3…4d5bbacked Yes22c1,500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x345a…fa23backed No78c1,500$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3301100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53cd…c1d9backed No76c1,500$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3601100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7257…674bbacked Yes22c1,500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1856…1964backed No68c1,500$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.99650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x268f…8155backed Yes44c1,413$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x801b…3b0bbacked Yes7c1,398$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes43c1,380$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.832755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…e17ebacked No64c1,364$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.66837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-41.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d6…64b8backed Yes7c1,351$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-29.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x40bb…72bebacked Yes23c1,324$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002176.2%16 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+29.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe9ee…d947backed No64c1,234$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.191816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-74%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a20…101cbacked No15c1,198$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.3966.7%6 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.56per pick10cpaid+974.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x4bdf…eed3backed No34c1,195$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.07944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2c…a0a4backed Yes8c1,176$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes43c1,163$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.648037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ea…1794backed Yes22c1,146$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+146.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x768f…d4b6backed No80c1,130$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.081866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2583…0626backed No53c1,127$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.44966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+71.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2276…550cbacked Yes43c1,121$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.24450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd8…1a6fbacked Yes66c1,104$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.74714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-79.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d54…2386backed No66c1,063$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x648c…09c6backed No56c1,060$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.92157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb620…dd7abacked No43c1,060$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.991241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…5333backed Yes39c1,033$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-81.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes28c1,017$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.536750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4930…d78dbacked Yes64c1,008$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.04922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick49cpaid-69.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa673…efc5backed No76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa477…5283backed Yes24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No39c969.19$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.985354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf70…50e9backed Yes23c950.57$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.973053.3%16 W · 14 L+5.0wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+50.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfd13…e6f1backed No21c920.51$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.21233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+90.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc885…8699backed Yes38c918.2$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.84425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-58.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce08…28bdbacked Yes20c905.03$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.52520%5 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-44.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked No74c883.33$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.332055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb67…aa22backed No51c870.61$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.821957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.