Movies · resolved market
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x389c2ec601a0f905a9ddc74e758d9b3caa9d83099b7de5cbdd8ebe1e8b186c32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $426,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $442,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $426,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,340 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 36c | 21,028$7,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,450.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +110%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 61c | 20,541$12,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,556.64 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 65c | 18,000$11,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,651.25 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 33c | 15,364$5,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,219.32 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…27bbbacked Yes | 67c | 11,858$7,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,897.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 34c | 9,188$3,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,054.14 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a1…daa5backed Yes | 71c | 8,934$6,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,332.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…f1c3backed Yes | 69c | 7,657$5,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,315 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 49c | 7,313$3,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,758.06 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed Yes | 53c | 7,000$3,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,709.75 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0403…f445backed Yes | 67c | 6,710$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked No | 32c | 5,977$1,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,051.23 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.46per pick | 38cpaid | +135.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 66c | 5,934$3,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,923.05 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc04d…69e7backed Yes | 64c | 5,727$3,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,673.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 64c | 5,620$3,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,621.23 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 64c | 5,470$3,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,506.73 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 69c | 5,436$3,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,745.34 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 56c | 5,093$2,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,836.13 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 35c | 4,980$1,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,212.62 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 64c | 4,979$3,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,162.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 55c | 4,934$2,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,695.86 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked No | 35c | 4,860$1,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,182.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 38c | 4,830$1,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,992.39 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 64c | 4,729$3,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,029.71 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ff…f7adbacked Yes | 64c | 4,429$2,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,818.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 71c | 4,284$3,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,036.69 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 65c | 4,234$2,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,735.98 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…5cd2backed Yes | 63c | 4,000$2,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,503.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed No | 38c | 3,943$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,448.02 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 63c | 3,869$2,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,451.57 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 31c | 3,558$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,469.62 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 32c | 3,426$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,313.69 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3503…b8babacked No | 27c | 3,195$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,332.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 59c | 3,109$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.74 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33ca…5a8bbacked Yes | 64c | 3,025$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,924.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…6e05backed Yes | 73c | 2,965$2,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 42c | 2,855$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,657.03 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 58c | 2,751$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.04 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 6c | 2,666$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 6c | 2,666$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…f489backed Yes | 64c | 2,367$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.85 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 49c | 2,352$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.3 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Yes | 74c | 2,261$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 62c | 2,000$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.94 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 1c | 1,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 3cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3818…999fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,893$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked Yes | 63c | 1,700$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,684$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.18 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 35c | 1,655$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.86 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…67c3backed Yes | 67c | 1,600$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 43c | 1,599$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.41 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed No | 32c | 1,591$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.9 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 63c | 1,581$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9554…2d01backed Yes | 66c | 1,518$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 65c | 1,501$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.13 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…e78bbacked Yes | 65c | 1,474$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 62c | 1,464$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 58c | 1,459$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes | 61c | 1,425$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.01 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…2af7backed Yes | 56c | 1,418$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…25b0backed Yes | 71c | 1,407$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 64c | 1,351$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.66 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 68c | 1,225$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.89 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b61…599cbacked Yes | 69c | 1,113$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d7…0a81backed Yes | 64c | 1,068$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578c…9661backed Yes | 62c | 1,062$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1d…3a2dbacked Yes | 61c | 1,010$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked No | 33c | 1,010$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.73 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e40…c89dbacked No | 35c | 999.97$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f0…eb46backed Yes | 68c | 959.07$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 48c | 949.96$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.98 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…d8afbacked Yes | 68c | 910.45$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 28c | 906.63$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.11 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…6ab3backed No | 39c | 896.24$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d27…5f54backed Yes | 63c | 887.08$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 72c | 882.27$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb7…692cbacked Yes | 64c | 881.58$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 32c | 875.31$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 34c | 860.85$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.09 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed Yes | 50c | 829$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.36 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 42c | 817.48$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.15 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…d01bbacked Yes | 53c | 799.64$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 43c | 778$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.46 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…e599backed Yes | 65c | 765$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc2…9271backed Yes | 72c | 762.98$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bf…7851backed No | 43c | 737.21$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 59c | 734.4$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.55 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 42c | 725.56$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 45c | 725$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.7 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…a0b3backed Yes | 71c | 706.3$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Yes | 69c | 702.11$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed No | 36c | 700$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.47 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 684.37$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.6 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 39c | 674.05$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.81 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…5455backed Yes | 45c | 673.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 64c | 663.65$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.7 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…c966backed Yes | 63c | 655.75$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1837…c705backed Yes | 64c | 644.06$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…2219backed Yes | 63c | 636.82$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…af00backed Yes | 69c | 633.24$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.85 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Karla Sofía Gascón win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.